Short Market Consolidation And Wait-And-See Prices Fluctuate Little.

Today, polyester and staple market consolidation and wait-and-see are the main products. The quotations of manufacturers are basically stable. The mainstream of 1.4D direct spinning polyester and short market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is reported to be 6800-6900 yuan / ton, and the actual deal can be discussed.

Today, Fujian polyester short quotation is basically stable, 1.4D direct spinning polyester and short market mainstream newspaper 6650-6850 yuan / ton short delivery, the actual deal can be discussed, morning.

Futures are weaker after opening.

The narrow fluctuation market has lasted for more than a month, and the market is not expected to fluctuate this week.

Attention should be paid to oil price and upstream PTA operation and the operation of polyester and short industries.

Shandong, Hebei market short and short quotation weak stability, 1.4 direct spinning polyester short mainstream newspaper 6950-7150 yuan / ton to send, the actual paction concessions negotiation, at present, short cash flow margin.

Pure polyester yarn quoted price is stable, and there is no obvious change in the volume of the goods received by the traders. The mainstream quotation of 32S is 11100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of 45S is near 12100 yuan / ton.

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Industrial chain losses are mainly reflected in PTA production and downstream polyester industry.

According to the PX import price of 800 US dollars / ton, PTA production is above 5000 yuan / ton, and the spot price is between 4700 yuan and 4820 yuan per ton, and the loss per ton is at least 200 yuan.

Polyester, according to the PTA spot price of 4750 yuan / ton, polyester chip prices barely maintain breakeven, polyester staple fiber loss per ton of about 100 yuan, polyester filament DTY loss per ton of 50 to 100 yuan, and polyester filament POY per ton loss margin as high as nearly 400 yuan.

Interest rate increases in December were expected to boost the US dollar index.

According to the data released by the US labor department, the number of non farm workers in the United States increased by 271 thousand in October, significantly better than the expected 182 thousand people, with a jobless rate of 5%, a record low since 2008. Yellen, chairman of the Federal Reserve, is most concerned about the growth rate of hourly earnings.

With the non-agricultural employment data exceeding expectations, the Fed's interest rate hike in December has greatly increased.

According to the survey data, the market expects that the possibility of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve in December has soared to 69.8%, which was only 36.6%.

This led the US dollar index to break through the pre oscillation range and again close to the $100 mark, and the commodity generally fell under pressure.

From time to time, before the December fed meeting, it was expected that the US dollar would remain strong.

The global supply of crude oil is abundant, and there are six successive increases in US stocks.

In the latest phase of the world energy outlook, EIA pointed out that OPEC continues to carry out the oil strategy that takes high market share in high output, and oil prices will remain at the current level; if the Middle East situation becomes more stable and global economic growth is lower than expected, international oil prices may remain at $50 / barrel by 2020.

EIA inventory report shows that as of October 28th, the US commercial crude oil inventories were 482 million 800 thousand barrels, which have increased for six consecutive weeks.

Abundant supply and inventory growth are still the main factors to suppress oil prices in the long run.

In addition, the low inventory of PTA and polyester factories and the lack of futures warehouse receipts are one of the reasons why the fund has been promoted to PTA. However, the low inventory of spot enterprises is not the result of consumption, but the result of the enterprises' purchase and sale on demand and therefore can not be the reason for supporting the price.

Futures margin is less due to futures discount, according to the closing price of the main contract in November 10th, PTA futures price on the spot price of 50 - 100 yuan / ton.

More importantly, the loss of polyester from the middle of the year reflects the lack of demand to some extent.

To sum up, crude oil is subject to a surge in the US dollar index and ample supply, and the price rebound is highly limited. It is expected that the low position and weak operation pattern will be difficult to change during the year. Therefore, it is difficult for PTA to have a top-down cost driven market.

In addition, the cost support and overhaul of PTA production losses are difficult to change.

On the operation, it is recommended that light duty test run be made between the PTA main contract 1601, 4700 - 4800 yuan / ton, stop loss 4800 - 4820 yuan / ton, and the target level is 4500 - 4550 yuan / ton.