There Will Be Three Uncertainties In The Market In November.

Huang Cendong, strategist of wealth management center of state securities company: I don't think it's possible because the background is different.

Last year we talked about restructuring.

Expectations are relatively high, especially for small and medium sized boards and gem.

In addition, last year's vision for reform was relatively large. At that time, reform was in a hazy stage.

In addition, investors all increased leverage last year, so that the market has seen a rapid rise, we see only making money, not seeing losses.

Recently, although we see the rise of the financial sector, the reasons for the rise are different, so the result will not be the same.

Guangdong Yu Rong Cci Capital Ltd chairman Wu Guoping: in recent trading days, although the stock index has risen strongly, it is very difficult to replicate the trend of unilateral rise last year. After all, there is not enough money before the stock market. After the stock market crash, the popularity needs to be gradually restored, and more importantly, the management does not want to go up like this.

Therefore, it is the main theme to move upward and upward in the future.

Chen Xu, director of research and investment of Shandong Weihai Yuan Yuan Investment Co., Ltd.: every time the market has different characteristics, the market has risen this week, and those incremental funds have been admitted.

The plate led the market upside down, and this year, I think more policies and reforms are expected to be strong, which has injected new impetus to the market.

At present, the rise of blue chips is dominated by financial stocks, and the main catalyst is SDR.

After entering the SDR, the demand for RMB assets will rise, and it will play an upward role in the value of the RMB. This will bring about a one-time revaluation of all valuations for all financial companies, which is a big logic for the rise of financial stocks.

However, there is uncertainty in the final entry into the SDR itself.

The sustainability of the rise is doubtful.

And last year, many blue chips rose, and many people used leveraged tools. They did not lose money and leveraged all the way. But this year, people who use leverage also have a lingering fear. In case of explosion, they will cause great losses.

Therefore, from the perspective of sustainability, the sustainability of blue chips this year is also weaker than last year's.

In addition, there are differences in economic judgement.

Although every year we say that "next year is the bottom", "next year" is not the end.

Therefore, we will not be very willing to catch up, especially institutional funds. I do not think that will be very strong.

Overall, the rise of the blue chips is related to the game behavior, including the expectation of RMB entering the SDR.

Why do I say that the game related behavior is mainly due to the assessment by the end of the year, and the relatively strong insurance companies, banks and brokerages in recent years, including the strong colored and coal that are going strong on Thursday, are all low matching varieties of fund companies. It is very likely that they will play a game against these boards so that the net value can be higher.

In addition, SDR is also a catalyst, but with uncertainty.

On the whole, there may be more worries as overseas investors.

In addition, from the perspective of their financial intervention, they had intervened a lot in early September, including the days before the opening of October, and they also showed capital inflows. So far, their earnings are quite high. From the perspective of circumvention and uncertainty, they may gain profits or reduce their positions and lock in profits.