PMI No Bad News Is Actually Good News.

In September, investment, import and export, profits and other data are still performing poorly. Under the steady growth force, the effect of four successive moves (loose local financing platform + debt replacement + promotion of PPP+ to accelerate the approval of projects and the introduction of engineering packages) has already appeared, but the focus of steady growth is still in the word "steady". The fourth quarter economic balance will be the best result, which is an era without good news.

Monetary policy, because the real interest rate is still high (the benchmark interest rate is 1.5%, PPI-5%), the central bank is still likely to lower the real interest rate by lowering the nominal interest rate. If CPI and PPI exceed expectations, it is possible to reduce interest rates in the future. Taking into account the declining trend of foreign exchange occupying, the basic monetary gap should be reduced to hedge. There will be more than one reduction in the future.

(special debt and fixed asset capital) and social capital (continue to accelerate PPP) plus leverage.

In November 1st, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the manufacturing and non manufacturing PMI in October.

Data show that China's official manufacturing PMI in October was 49.8, with an expected value of 50 and a pre value of 49.8.

The official non manufacturing PMI was 53.1, and the former value was 53.4.

In response to this, people's livelihood securities Zhang Yu explained that demand rebounded slightly, mainly domestic demand boost: new orders data continued to maintain above the ups and downs and slightly rebounded, but the new export orders are still below the line, and accelerated shrinkage, indicating that domestic demand is not strong, domestic demand has been stable.

In view of domestic demand, due to seasonal factors of fiscal expenditure arrangement, the effect of early steady growth has been released.

Production index continued to decline year-on-year growth. The weighted PMI of major developed countries has been showing a downward trend since the middle of the year.

Production continued to expand but the expansion slowed down, purchasing volume data picked up slightly but still shrunk, labor accelerated compression, prices accelerated shrinkage: faced with a certain demand for improvement, enterprises continued to expand production, but still squeezed employment, the number of contracted procurement, production expansion continued to be observed;

The rate hike is expected to be delayed. Global commodities are dragging their shoulders. The price of main raw materials continues to shrink. Inventory index is still low, showing that enterprises still go to stock.

No bad news is good news, the fourth quarter of the economic balance will be the best result.

In September, investment, import and export, profits and other data are still performing poorly. Under the steady growth force, the effect of four successive moves (loose local financing platform + debt replacement + promotion of PPP+ to accelerate the approval of projects and the introduction of engineering packages) has already appeared, but the focus of steady growth is still in the word "steady". The fourth quarter economic balance will be the best result, which is an era without good news.