Domestic Caprolactam Spot Overall Stability

Caprolactam market is stable and good, and downstream follow-up needs to be boosted. The caprolactam market is expected to increase slightly in the short term.

The liquid feed factory's foreign offer arrived at 11400-11500 yuan / ton acceptance, and the mainstream market discussed the acceptance at 11100-11200 yuan / ton acceptance.

Mainstream talks in the United States

At $1350-1380 / ton, there was not much discussion.

market

Higher, downstream delivery intentions generally, not much actual turnover.

Closing at 619.5-620.5 U.S. dollars / ton FOB in October 19th, the main port of Korea increased by 7.5 US dollars / ton compared with the previous working day.

Crude oil closed on October 19th: gasoline prices tumbled and China's GDP was unsatisfactory, and crude oil futures in Europe and the United States dropped by 4%.

WTI closed at $45.89 / barrel, down 1.37 US dollars / barrel, Brent closed at 48.61 U.S. dollars / barrel fell 1.85 U.S. dollars / barrel.

Related links:

The recent decline in cotton prices is mainly due to the pressure from the cash market and the low recognition of new cotton quality textile companies. It is estimated that there will still be a downward trend in the new cotton market, and if the pressure of capital links is eased, short-term cotton will go out of the rally.

Judging from the annual trend of cotton prices, 2015/2016 year, the new cotton quality is poor may lead to a large number of resources into the futures market, Zheng cotton trend continues under pressure.

In addition, the spread of cotton price grade or continue to expand, do not rule out the domestic cotton prices in line with international standards, or even lower than the possibility of international cotton prices.

Since September 25th, Zheng cotton has increased its losses. At present, the CF1601 contract has fallen below 12000 yuan / ton, and the CF1605 contract has fallen below 11800 yuan / ton.

There are two reasons for the acceleration of Zheng cotton's decline: first, the new cotton market has entered a large number of listing period in China, and the capital of enterprises is tight and the market is short of money. The two is the quality deviation of new cotton, which can be made into futures warehouse receipts. However, it is difficult for textile enterprises to spin high count yarn, and the demand for goods is low.

It is reported that in 2015/2016, new cotton in Xinjiang generally featured short fiber and high horse value.

According to the public security inspection data of the Bureau, as of October 12th, the cotton weighted length index had been reduced by 1mm compared with the same period last year. The proportion of cotton less than 28mm was 59%, compared with 14% in the same period last year.

The proportion of micron value B2 gear decreased by 31 percentage points, and the C2 value of cotton was more than 70%.

From the aspect of fracture strength, the proportion of cotton above S2 decreased from nearly 50% last year to 30%. If we consider the length index again, the proportion of double 28 cotton will be only 11%.

According to our investigation of some textile enterprises, it is difficult to use cotton with C2 and 27mm in length below 40 or more.

On the market, double 28 (length 28mm, strong 28cN/tex) and above cotton quotations have been significantly higher than other cotton, and some textile enterprises have been discouraged from this year's new cotton and have been unable to enter the market for purchase, instead of throwing them into the import cotton market.

Although the price of high-grade cotton and cotton is higher than that of the domestic market, the overall trend is still strong.

From Zheng cotton warehouse receipt requirements, the warehouse receipts in the 2015/2016 warehouse are up to 300 yuan / ton in cotton futures warehouse receipts with a length of 27mm, and the value of C2 is 200 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton more than that in 2014/15.

In real spot trade, the discount of the length and the horse's value is higher than that of the futures warehouse receipt.

Therefore, although the price of zhengmian futures has obviously declined, but considering the proportion of futures warehouse receipts made by the new cotton with poor quality, the strength of the textile enterprises and the discount of the futures market, the actual futures market still has relative advantages to increase the volume of warehouse receipts.

As of October 18th, the processing capacity of Xinjiang's new cotton has reached 980 thousand tons, an increase of 46% over the same period last year, with a processing capacity of 670 thousand tons. Roughly estimated, at present, the amount of new cotton has been occupied by about 10 billion yuan.

Cotton is an agricultural product. It has the characteristics of annual output of seasonal products. When the new cotton concentrates are listed, there will be more money and less goods, and cotton prices will generally decrease seasonally.

For cotton processing enterprises, this year's financial pressure is tighter than in previous years: first, last year, Zheng cotton futures oscillated lower and the spot opened higher and lower. In the acquisition period, futures were deeply priced in spot, and cotton enterprises were difficult to hedge through futures. Two, after three consecutive years of unlimited storage, most of the cotton enterprises' customer resources were lost. Under the market environment, cotton enterprises' sales channels were insufficient. At the end of the year, there was still a large backlog of stock, which could not be sold in time, affecting the Agricultural Development Bank's "double knot zero", and it was even harder to get bank loans in the new year.