Setting "13Th Five-Year" Is Opportunity And Challenge.

Data released in the three quarter is coming soon, GDP growth rate breaking "7" is expected to increase again. When the economy is not optimistic in 2015, the next "Five Year Plan" is getting closer and closer. The 13th Five-Year plan will be deliberated on the fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, which is to be held in from October 26th to 29th.

"If we can build a well-off society in an all-round way in 2020, to a large extent, it can be said that it has basically reached the standard of being moderately developed or relatively well-off. The realization of China's goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way is not only of Chinese significance, but also of human development significance. Hu Angang, Dean of Tsinghua University's national conditions Research Institute, said.

Even so, despite the tight schedule and heavy task, the economic targets have been lowered. economic transition Under shifting pressure, it will still be lowered again. Industry authorities predict that during the "13th Five-Year" period, the reasonable range of China's economic growth rate will be between 6.5% and 7.5%. If the international factors change relatively large, the upper and lower limit will be further reduced by 0.5 percentage points. According to the latest article published by the official media, it is not yet possible to exclude the possibility of reducing the expected growth target of economic growth from "7%" in 13th Five-Year to 6.5% in the period of 12th Five-Year.

　　 Set the tone " The 13th Five-year "

As the first five year plan for the new leader, the 13th Five-Year plan is bound to become one of the most critical five year plans. As a matter of fact, in order to compile the "13th Five-Year plan", the CPC has concentrated on grassroots research since the beginning of this year.

From May to July, President Xi Jinping studied in Zhejiang, Guizhou and Jilin one after another, and held a symposium in succession to listen to the opinions and suggestions of the leaders of the 18 provincial and municipal Party committees in Shanghai on the economic and social development during the 13th Five-Year period. At the symposium, Xi Jinping clarified the "short board" that China needed to make up during the "13th Five-Year" period, and deployed ten major areas that needed to make "obvious breakthroughs". This will be the focus of attention at the Fifth Plenary Session of the fifth plenary session, and a series of solutions and reform paths will be proposed.

At the beginning of September, when Li Keqiang presided over the meeting to deploy the "13th Five-Year" national economic and social development plan, it was emphasized that the study of the "13th Five-Year" plan should be combined far and near, and more attention should be paid to solving the long-term challenges by coping with the current challenges.

On October 13th, Premier Li Keqiang chaired a forum on the economic situation of some provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), and stressed that the next step should be to continue to innovate the way of macroeconomic regulation and control, accurately implement directional control, camera control, strengthen counter cyclical regulation, control potential risks, consolidate economic fundamentals, and nurture new development momentum.

According to the analysis of the insiders, the "13th Five-Year plan" is by no means a simple recursion of the time point, but is endowed with many new connotations, which is based on the great logic of the new economic normal. Under the "four comprehensive" top-level design, it makes strategic arrangements for the economic and social sectors, ensuring that the sprint of the goal of the whole well-off society is stalling and not deviating.

It is reported that in order to achieve higher quality and more efficiency The development of China's economy will achieve three changes: from the main investment, export and consumption to the "three carriages" coordinated drive; from the main industry to the 123 industry coordinated development; from the main material resources consumption to labor productivity.

　　 Looking forward to new initiatives

The central government set the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way in 2020. One of the quantitative criteria is to raise the average per capita income of urban and rural residents to two times that of 2010. Now that deadline is approaching, more deployments are expected to be achieved in the fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee.

The meeting coincided with a slowdown in China's economic growth, and speculation is growing that whether or not to announce new initiatives to boost the economy or reduce gross domestic product.

Hung Ho, chief strategist at Bank of communications, said the priorities of the leadership were shifting from digital targets. "Despite the lack of detailed information, the new plan will reduce the emphasis on the number 7," he said. "It will continue to focus on improving the quality of growth and improving public welfare."

In fact, this view has been widely accepted that growth expectations will be lowered. One expert said that because China has experienced a relatively high economic growth over the past 5 years, it will be able to achieve an average growth rate of 6.8% over the next 5 years.

"At present and in the coming period, the world economic environment is still more complex, opportunities and challenges are intertwined, time and momentum are generally favorable to China, and the important strategic opportunities for development still exist, but at the same time, they are faced with many difficulties and challenges. The task of adjusting structure, transferring ways and promoting innovation is still arduous." On May 27th, Xi Jinping held a forum at the 7 leading comrades of the Party committee of the eastern provinces and cities in Zhejiang.

China must maintain enough growth rate to avoid the middle income trap. Zhuang Jian, senior economist at the China Development Office of the Asian Development Bank, said that the focus of the next few years should be to ensure that the trap will not happen. China needs to upgrade to a high income economy and ensure that most people enjoy the benefits of social and economic development. More and more signs suggest that this may be the focus of the new "Five Year Plan".

　　 Opportunities and challenges

According to the analysis of the interviewed scholars, China's economic situation is grim and its exports are obviously restricted. Industrial innovation will be a top priority for the next 5 years.

According to the Deutsche horn report, the conference will focus mainly on economic restructuring and easing the government's control over the economy. It is also expected to discuss the reform of state-owned enterprises that has been put on the agenda in the fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee.

In addition, the "13th Five-Year plan" will continue to focus on urbanization. Urbanization is conducive to releasing the huge potential of domestic demand, and helps to break the two element structure of urban and rural areas and promote social equity and common prosperity. We should pay more attention to "urbanization of people" and let nostalgia become melancholy.

Apart from economic issues, the decision of the plenary meeting on personnel changes is also a matter of concern. Since the beginning of the eighteen years, more than 100 provincial and ministerial level officials and military rank or above cadres have been investigated, including 4 Central Committee members, including Jiang Jiemin, Li Dongsheng, Yang Jinshan, Ling plan, and 11 central alternate members such as Li Chuncheng, Wang Yongchun and Wan Qingliang.

In addition, there is the whole society's pension problem. Due to the implementation of family planning for many years, China's current fertility rate is low, facing the pressure of population decline. Pension reform, second child policy and other reforms are also in full swing.