Textile Market Will Rebound In September.

According to data, this month

The market continued to narrow down. As of August 31st, the textile index was 760 points, down 2.69% from 781 at the beginning of the month, a record low in the period, which was 29.24% lower than the 1074 on 2013 02.

(Note: cycle 2011-12-01 to date)

From the list of prices of textile commodity prices monitored in August, we can see that the number of textile raw materials sold in 21 textile products has been rising, and the rate of increase has not exceeded 3% in the total of 4 textile raw materials monitored.

Two, the decline narrowed, and in August, the decline in 17 commodities fell by no more than 5%.

Three.

Plate individual commodity market rebounded, such as the viscose industry chain still maintained a good rally, viscose staple fiber increased 2.04%, cotton yarn increased 1.22%, acrylic fiber and polyester fiber have improved over the last month, of which acrylic fiber short fiber rose 0.32%, polyester FDY increased 0.62%.

Oversupply dragged cotton market

Data show that domestic

Spot prices showed a slight downward trend, constantly refresh the past 5 years of historical lows.

At present, the price of domestic 3128B cotton in the spot market is 13000 yuan / ton, down 23.07% from the same period last year, down 57.92% from the highest price of 30900 yuan / ton in February 2011.

Domestic cotton supply exceeds demand is still the main reason for the drag on cotton market.

1. At present, there are still tens of millions of tons of reserve cotton in the national reserve. However, due to weak demand, coupled with competition from imported cotton,

Has been caught in an awkward situation of indigestion.

In early July of this year, cotton mills began to work, but the turnover was light.

As of 31 days, the cumulative output of cotton reserves has reached 63411.74 tons. At this rate, the turnover of tens of thousands of tons in two months can not reach the goal of keeping the rational stocks of national cotton reserves.

Two, demand side improvement is weak, and textile enterprises are short of funds.

The improvement of downstream consumption is still weak. In August, textile industry was still in the off-season, and there were not many orders in autumn.

As of August 28th, the total number of processing lint cotton was 6 million 473 thousand tons, down 395 thousand tons compared to the same period, and the total sales of lint 5 million 886 thousand tons, down 772 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.

Chemical fiber has different strengths.

According to statistics, the price of viscose staple fiber (1.5D) is at 13600 yuan / ton, a record high of nearly two years, up 17.24% from the lowest level in early March this year.

Thanks to the industry's initiative in capacity and environmental protection, the viscose staple business is booming.

At the same time, the impact of raw material pull up, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream increased significantly, and the price rise began to slow down in the beginning of last decade. The main reason is that the general mentality of the downstream part of the radical pursuit is more cautious, maintaining a certain amount of rigid demand replenishment.

August for the PTA industry chain experience a "roller coaster", from the PTA industry chain price fluctuation chart can be seen, PTA fell 3.97%, upstream PX fell 4.78%, downstream polyester POY fell 0.06%, DTY fell 0.16%, short fiber fell 1.31%, FDY rose 0.62%.

In August, the cost side of PTA dropped significantly. Fortunately, there was a maintenance period in the factory. The demand for downstream enquiries was still strong, and the PTA market was in a stalemate. But in the middle and last ten days, crude oil began to decline, breaking through the $40 / barrel barrier and dropping to $37.75 / ton.

The collapse of the PTA market has been severely frustrated. The price has been refreshing for nearly 15 years and the spot price is approaching the 4000 yuan / tonne pass.

At the end of the month, by the central bank's "double fall" stimulus, and crude oil and raw materials PX rebounded strongly, the downstream buying sentiment heated up, the volume increased significantly, and the PTA mainstream device was boosted by unexpected parking. The operating rate remained at about 57% low, and the price shock rose.

Textile exports decline, Southeast Asia grabs the market

textile

The situation is not good, China's textiles in July 2015.

Exports amounted to US $27 billion 254 million, an increase of 7.52% over the same period, a decrease of 10.19% over the same period last year, of which the textile exports amounted to US $9 billion 515 million, down 5.86% from the same period last year, and the export volume of garments was 17 billion 739 million US dollars, down 12.36% from the same period last year.

In recent years, Southeast Asia and other countries continue to occupy China's textile market with their cost advantages, which in turn affects China's weakening demand for textile raw materials.

At the same time, from the whole bulk market in August, China's commodity supply and demand index (BCI) was -0.49, rising by -2.37%, reflecting the contraction of the manufacturing economy in the month, and the risk of economic downside increased.

Analyst Xia Ting believes that the textile raw materials market has always been weak due to various unfavorable factors such as the weakening of raw material costs, the increase of supply side and weak demand. But in the near future, there will be more good news on the basis of the fundamentals. It will also meet the traditional demand peak season of "golden nine silver ten", and the market in September is expected to improve significantly compared with August.

Specifically: cotton textile market, although the overall situation is still not optimistic, but there are also some positive factors, from the domestic and foreign cotton supply side, according to the United States Department of agriculture's global production and demand forecast in August, 2015/16 global cotton inventory reduced by 653 thousand tons, mainly cotton production decline in main producing countries.

In 2015, the actual planting area of cotton in China is expected to be 52 million 640 thousand mu, 13 million 450 thousand mu less than that in 2014, and 20% reduction. The total output of cotton in China is 5 million 500 thousand tons, a decrease of 14% over the same period last year.

Imports are also decreasing. According to China Customs statistics, in July 2015, China imported 105 thousand and 700 tons of cotton, a decrease of 56 thousand and 100 tons, or 34.67%. In September 2014 -2015, in July, China imported 1 million 600 thousand and 900 tons of cotton, down 1 million 197 thousand and 700 tons, or 42.80%.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the coming golden nine silver ten will stimulate the latent outbreak of cotton concentration. From the perspective of substitution, the price of viscose is higher than that of cotton and has a positive effect on cotton demand.

First, the viscose industry chain will continue to maintain momentum, viscose staple fiber manufacturers in September are scheduled to limit production maintenance increased, tight supply, upstream pulp continued to pull up, downstream cotton mill gradually out of the off-season, late orders or gradually increased.

PTA industry chain also welcomed all kinds of positive effects, PTA device, overhaul and drive and drive, the domestic PTA industry is expected to start less than in August.

Upstream, the Asian PX plant in September, South Korea Shuanglong, Japan light and other overhaul plans, expect that the supply of PX market in Asia is still tight.

The downstream part of the pet repair device is expected to restart, and considering the traditional peak season, the demand for terminal orders will be warmer.

Therefore, without considering the impact of crude oil and sudden factors, it is expected that the PTA industry chain will show a trend of shock and warmer, but the scope is limited.

In summary, the September textile market will be more likely to usher in a rebound trend, in the last ten days a strong shock, the mid - start rebound will expand, the highest point is expected to appear at the end of 775-780 points between the end of the month.