Off Season Demand: Decline In Polyester Operating Rate

At present, the polyester industry in the off-season consumption, polyester polyester production and marketing continued to slump, occasionally sales rebounded, mostly for "one day tour", polyester polyester stocks continued to rise.

Zhuo Chuang data show that as of June 18th, polyester POY mainstream stock in 14 to 20 days, polyester FDY mainstream stock in 15 to 25 days, a few higher 30 to 35 days.

Polyester enterprise sales pressure increased, polyester industry processing deficit expanded, enterprise production enthusiasm was affected.

at present

In the doldrums, the enthusiasm for purchasing bombs and weaving is not high, the industry will continue in the off-season, the possibility of continued decline in the starting rate is expected, and the weakening of demand for PTA is the main negative factor in the current market.

To sum up, at present, PTA industry is in the low consumption season.

Sluggish,

The operating rate is down, and the price of PTA is under pressure.

But crude oil oscillations, PX prices in the 900 U.S. dollars / ton oscillation, temporarily closed down the PTA space.

Although PTA overcapacity, part of the device's parking repair and restart become PTA price short wind vane.

Therefore, the short-term oscillation of PTA should be maintained. However, long-term crude oil is expected to have a long-term negative impact on PTA.

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The peak demand in summer and the closure of drilling platforms are good for the crude oil market. Recently, the US crude oil price has been oscillating sideways in the vicinity of US $60 / barrel, supporting its downstream products.

The price of PX has been oscillating at more than $900 / ton since mid June, and the cost of converting PTA is over 5200 yuan / ton.

Therefore, the price of PTA gradually weakened in the two quarter, but at 5000 yuan / ton, the drop in power was obviously insufficient. At present, the cost of supporting PTA price is obvious.

But in the long run, crude oil still has downward expectations.

OPEC's daily output of 30 million barrels of crude oil remains unchanged, but its actual output is increasing.

IEA data show that in May, OPEC oil production increased by 50 thousand barrels per day to 31 million 330 thousand barrels per day, the highest since August 2012, and the global crude oil market has maintained a situation of oversupply in the past five quarters.

Therefore, in the long run, crude oil still has downward pressure, which is the PTA long term bad luck.

Although the domestic PTA capacity has reached a high level of 47 million tons, in addition to the long-term parking of some backward small devices under some million tons, Far East Petrochemical 3 million 200 thousand tons and Xiang Lu Petrochemical 4 million 500 thousand ton plant are also in the parking state, so the actual operation rate of domestic PTA has dropped to about 70%.

From the current PTA cash flow, the processing loss of 300 yuan / ton above the high level, has exceeded the scope of some enterprises, may lead to some devices initiative to cut production.

At present, the Fujian Jialong 600 thousand ton plant has been stopping during the Dragon Boat Festival. In addition, Jiangyin Hon Bang 600 thousand ton plant has a short parking plan this week.

Therefore, the operating rate of PTA will drop to below 70% again, and the PTA price will be good in the short term.

However, it is rumoured that the Zhangzhou PTA plant of Xiang Lu petrochemical company plans to restart a line in July, which will supply pressure to the market.

Therefore, although the PTA production capacity is huge, the operating rate of the industry is reduced, and the larger installations will have a great impact on the supply and demand side, which will easily lead to PTA price fluctuations.