Xinjiang Cotton Is The "Trump Card" Of China'S Cotton Industry.

In terms of season, in June and 2015, new cotton seedlings were "spitting leaves and jointing".

And in June cotton textile and clothing will enter the traditional off-season, how to cotton in the off-season cotton? This will challenge the bottom line of Xinjiang cotton.

Coupled with the long staple cotton stalled, as of May 27th, Xinjiang Awati County cotton ginning factory 137 grade long staple cotton delivery price maintained at 28100-28300 yuan / ton, 237 level in 27200-27300 yuan / ton, compared to last week basically unchanged.

However, individual ginning factories have been thinking of lowering prices.

How much inventory is there in Xinjiang cotton? Data show that in 2014, the total output of cotton in Xinjiang was 4 million 300 thousand tons, including 1 million 700 thousand tons in the corps and 2 million 600 thousand tons in the area.

By the end of May, Xinjiang cotton sales had been completed by about 65%, of which local sales progress was faster and sales progress of the Xinjiang cotton group was slower.

As a result, the commercial inventory of Xinjiang cotton should be at 1 million 505 thousand tons so far.

According to feedback from Xinjiang ginning mills and cotton merchants,

The customs clearance of motor vehicles is pported to the mainland by 1.2-1.5 tons per day.

What is the interest of Xinjiang cotton? From the Xinjiang ginning factory, to 27 days, the 2128 stage platform price is 13600-13700 yuan / ton, 3128 class 13300-13400 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week.

But most manufacturers reflect that

The cost has been inverted 200-300 yuan / ton.

Let's take a look at cotton traders. The price difference between Xinjiang cotton and Xinjiang cotton in Xinjiang area is 300-400 yuan / ton, except for freight and miscellaneous fees.

Now Xinjiang cotton is very happy to pport to the mainland. In fact, most of the Xinjiang ginning plants are moving to the mainland instead of several cotton traders.

What is the consumption of the market? As we all know, Xinjiang cotton is more than 85% of the total consumption of the mainland textile enterprises. But what is the day of the textile industry in the mainland in the late May? To 27, cotton and yarns in Shandong and Jiangsu showed a "reduction in price" situation, especially in the middle and low branches, the recent price fell 200-300 yuan / ton, and the individual fell 500 yuan / ton.

On the same day, the price of 12 spinning and 16 spinning enterprises in Binzhou was 14200 yuan / ton and 15500 yuan / ton respectively, down 200 yuan / ton last week.

The price of the 21 and 32 were 20200 yuan / ton and 21500 yuan / ton respectively, all of which fell 150 yuan / ton compared with the previous week, and some fell 200 yuan / ton.

Because of the slowdown in yarn sales, the sales of cotton enterprises will be reduced.

Under such circumstances, how will Xinjiang cotton be interpreted?

First, the possibility of a recent downward trend is relatively large.

The pressure of inventory and the weakening of demand will bring downward pressure on Xinjiang cotton. It is estimated that the center of gravity of Xinjiang cotton will drop slightly from the end of May to the beginning of June.

Second, if dumping, the reserves, prices and ways will be changed.

However, in view of the original intention of stabilizing the market, it is expected that the market will not cause greater volatility.

Therefore, the author believes that Xinjiang cotton will have an upper and lower bottom in the near future, or the possibility of fluctuating at the level of 13000 yuan / ton is relatively large.