PTA Positive Factors Gradually Digested

Since the beginning of April, under the combined action of accident explosion and centralized maintenance of aromatics PX plant, the main contract of PTA futures has rebounded sharply from the 4700 yuan / ton line, reaching a maximum of 5634 points, with a rebound of nearly 1000 points, or nearly 20%.

However, with the positive factors gradually digested, after the rapid rise in prices,

Futures are facing adjustment pressure.

Affected by the sharp decline in shale oil drilling in the United States, low oil price stimulating consumer demand and the adjustment of the US dollar index, international crude oil began to rebound sharply in mid January, and WTI oil price rose to a maximum of 63.62 US dollars / barrel.

In the near future, the high oil stocks in the United States and the peak of summer gasoline consumption are coming. The market is still optimistic about oil price expectations.

But I believe that the rebound in oil prices has already fulfilled most of the good results, and with the price of oil entering the relatively high level of 65 - 70 US dollars / barrel, shale oil production capacity in the United States will be released again.

Later, it is worth noting that Member States in the OPEC oil ministers meeting in June 5th agreed to reduce production.

If we agree to cut production, short-term oil prices will still have some upward momentum, but high oil prices will inevitably lead to a partial stop of the re emergence of shale oil wells. This is the main oil producing countries in the Middle East do not want to see; if a consensus agreement is not reached, then the probability of oil price oscillation is weak.

At the same time, the market expects the fed to raise interest rates in September, and the possibility of a return to strength after the adjustment of the US dollar.

Therefore, oil prices may face a pressure of phasing.

It is now in the peak season of downstream demand.

The operating rate is still 84.7% high in two years, but downstream demand will gradually fade after June.

Economic growth in China has continued to slow down.

In the background of shrinking, the demand side is hard to get much better.

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Last week, the focus of domestic cotton market spot prices moved slightly upward. Zheng cotton futures closed down after a few days of high inflation on Monday.

Some agencies issued research reports that, under the influence of the policy of agricultural distribution, Xinjiang cotton enterprises under the pressure of a new round of repayment of loans, the sales pressure increased further, coupled with the current market cotton resources are still relatively abundant, some institutions believe that the actual market price of the spot market does not rule out the possibility of moving downward.

With the control of cotton imports in China, the impact of imported cotton on China has been significantly reduced.

At present, the import price of cotton in the quota is 11195 yuan / ton, lower than the domestic cotton price, and imports still have advantages, but the quota is only 890 thousand tons. Last year, the import volume was as high as 2 million 440 thousand tons.

In the first three months, 450 thousand tons of cotton were imported, accounting for half of the quotas, and subsequent cotton prices were further constrained.

In May, the market began to pay attention to the supply and demand of cotton in the 2015/2016 year. The new year's supply easing situation has tightened expectations. It is estimated that domestic cotton planting area will decline significantly this year.

According to statistics of China Cotton Association, in 2015, China's cotton planting area was 48 million 430 thousand mu, a decrease of 24% over the same period last year.

In addition, based on the expectation of El Nino extreme weather, it is estimated that the output per unit in 2015 is also lower than that in 2014. In 2015, China's output will decline, with a preliminary estimate of about 10%.

Consumer demand is expected to improve, with an increase of 1.5% to 2%.

Judging from past years, 5 and June are the relative peak season for cotton yarn and cotton cloth demand.

Downstream demand has gradually improved, while textile mill yarn and grey fabric inventory is relatively low, and there is a demand for replenishment of enterprises, which will form a certain support for cotton and cotton yarn market, and there is a stage of recovery.

Galaxy Futures Research Report shows that the current cotton textile market orders do have signs of improvement, mainly stimulated by seasonal seasonal demand, but this demand is phased. Once the peak season is over, the demand for cotton in the downstream will be very difficult to continue.

It is understood that a large textile enterprise in Jiangsu is the top ten textile enterprise in China. From the end of the year to now, the order of cotton yarn has increased, and the stock of pre cotton yarn has been maintained for about 15 days.

Under the stimulation of orders after the year, the current stock of cotton yarn has increased, mainly in response to the demand of the latter market.

But in the past one or two weeks, the shipment of cotton yarn has slowed down, mainly because the new orders have not kept up.

The above report also shows that the substitution effect of imported cotton yarn on domestic cotton yarn also affects cotton demand.

When domestic cotton yarn demand is improving, traders' enthusiasm for importing cotton yarn has obviously improved. This year, under the seasonal consumption stimulation, the shipment date of some imported cotton yarns has been set to June and July.