Tenglong Aromatics Explosion As An Opportunity PTA Strong Still

In April, international oil prices went up unilaterally, and hit a high level in the first half of May.

From the supply side, the biggest benefit comes from the decline in US shale oil output growth.

EIA has already expressed its views in the monthly report in early April. In May 2015, the output of shale oil in the United States will decline. The output from 6 to September will probably decrease slightly, but the output will rise again in 2016.

The sharp rise in shale oil output in the United States is a driving force for the sharp fall in oil prices in the early period, and the decline in output growth or the decline in absolute output has brought breathing opportunities to the market.

In fact, since April, the US crude oil output has basically remained stable, coupled with the improvement of refinery operating rate. Cushing stock last week showed its first decline since last November, which directly supported WTI oil price.

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Look, at present, the global spring out of the refinery overhaul season, the peak season for consumption is coming.

By region, refineries in Europe and the United States and the Mediterranean have passed the peak of maintenance, especially in the United States, where refinery operating rates are above 90%, and Asia's maintenance peak is in June, but it is not far off.

Summer is the peak season for car driving in Europe and America, and oil consumption will increase.

Summer is also the peak for oil generation in Saudi Arabia and Japan, especially Saudi Arabia, where it often burns crude oil in summer.

In addition, global geopolitics is in a turbulent period. This is one of the by-products of low oil prices in the Middle East oil producing countries. Whether Saudi Arabia's military operations in Yemen or Libya's domestic conflicts may result in a reduction in supply.

Therefore, the probability of global crude oil strengthening at later stage is larger.

From the upstream raw material PX of PTA,

The explosion of aromatics means that in the short term, China's PX capacity has been removed by 12%, while PX's trade is usually dominated by contractual products.

In May, PX's ACP was $925 / ton, plus 700 yuan / ton processing fee, corresponding to PTA's cost price of 5130 yuan / ton, which is also the reasonable average value of spot in May. At present, it is also a supporting position of spot price.

The polyester end of PTA downstream is in good condition.

4 in the middle of the month, the polyester industry started up to a two-year high point. I heard that a two-year short staple enterprise has been driving again, which is enough to explain the stimulating effect of low price raw materials on polyester and terminal.

Polyester production and marketing are good and bad, but the overall stock of polyester is low, and the profit situation is acceptable.

It can be said that the polyester industry has bottomed out in 2014 and will become better and better in 2015.

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The industry itself sees a total of about 45000000 tons of capacity in the country, while the collapse of the Far East Petrochemical Company and the parking of Xiang Lu means that 10 million tons of capacity are temporarily disappearing.

Although PTA accumulated a lot of inventory in 1 - March, it only removes 300 thousand tons of social inventory in April alone.

In late April, with the start of three sets of PTA devices, there is a slight gap between the start-up load of PTA and the polyester ratio. Once the new PTA factory fails to stop properly, PTA will have a supply and demand gap. At this time, the PTA inventory of PTA factories and polyester enterprises is at a low level, and the price of PTA phase is likely to be greatly increased.