The Growth Of Gem Will Usher In 2600 Points.

If there is no further impetus, the gem index is likely to turn downward.

Orient Securities believes that from the internal situation, the current gem valuation, the overall valuation of gem nearly 90 times, many stocks even more than 100 times, the market value of the entire gem has nearly 4 trillion yuan.

The growth rate of GEM has basically exceeded the basic stage, and more is expected, and this expectation has been more than six months ahead of schedule. Many investors compare this round of valuation to the market dream rate. It is good to have a dream. If it happens, it has always encouraged investors to enjoy the feast under the bubble.

Judging from the external situation, Orient Securities believes that observing the NASDAQ index is forward-looking. But in the near future, the Nasdaq was at a low level after the 5042 point high, especially after the US economy was lower than expected.

　　 NASDAQ Index The stagnation also makes the world Investment style Swaying briefly, this time Gem At least, the loss of further breakthroughs from external strong thrust! This is likely to be a signal of accelerated peaking with many investors in private terms.

But Orient Securities also reminds us that when the gem is about to achieve 100 times valuations, investors need to stay half conscious and half drunk. At this time, we need to sober up rather than indulge in the bubble.

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Financial products, which are fighting against the mainstream market and grabbing money from banks and so on, are now in full swing.

The market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities is close to the savings balance of residents. Central bank data show that in 2014, RMB deposits increased by 9 trillion and 480 billion yuan, with a balance of 113 trillion and 860 billion yuan, representing a slight increase of 3 trillion and 80 billion yuan over the same period last year. By the end of 2014, the savings balance of China's residents reached 49 trillion and 900 billion yuan, the largest savings account and the largest per capita savings rate in the world. The household savings rate had exceeded 50%, far exceeding the world average level.

The stock market has now become a gold attracting market. The first quarter of 2015 was the largest quarterly increase in the history of A shares: the net inflow of guarantee funds was 614 billion 300 million yuan, and in the fourth quarter of 2014, it was second (592 billion yuan). In contrast, the margin in 2012 was net outflow.

The amount of financing and the frenzy of fund raising and the hot issue of fund issuance need not be said more. "One person, many households" and other policies are also adding fuel to the flames. From April 13th, each investor will have a total account and a number of sub accounts, which can open up 20 accounts at most 20 securities companies.

In the week ending April 3rd, the market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 40 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.72% over the previous week. This continuous growth trend has further evolved, and the market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is expected to exceed the resident savings balance. It also shows that funds are successfully absorbed into enterprises in the way of printing stocks. From the 2014 annual report of 11 listed banks, the total amount of deposits has been negative for two consecutive quarters.

Not only is the deposit declining, but because of the relatively low yield, the balance of financial products is also declining. According to data released by 360, in the first quarter of this year, banks issued 12176 financial products, with a sharp decrease of 39.55% in volume compared with the four quarter of 2014, a decrease of 20.2% compared with the first quarter of 2014. In the first quarter, the average yield of non guaranteed floating financial products was above 5.3%, but the yield of guaranteed revenue and guaranteed floating income financial products were below 5%. Liu Yinping, a 360 financial analyst, believes that the stock and fund market is hot, and that capital fled from the bank financial market to the more profitable stock market and base market is one of the reasons for the weakening of the issuance scale of financial products.

Internet baby products, once popular in the market, have been left out in the cold because of weak Monetary Fund and many restrictions. Banks are not short of funds, and the bond market is so strange that all kinds of baby products are difficult to compete with grading funds.

According to the data in April 13th, the annual cash yield of the southern cash treasure, which is linked to the southern cash increase, is 4.57%, with a yield of 1.06 yuan per million for the fund department's baby. 7. The 7 year yield of cashmere cash A, which is linked to harvest cash, is 4.47%, with an income of 1.14 yuan per 10000 yuan. The situation of the banking department is similar to that of the baby. P2P, because of its high risk, is gradually being replaced by many chips.

An inappropriate example is to open up the stock market, just putting a gambling table at the entrance of the village. The future tens of billions of asset securitization products, as well as the derivatives market with the bond market, are two large tables with considerable volume.

In the Research Report on the registration system of credit assets securitization, the Bank of communications pointed out that the issuance of credit assets securitization last year was 311 billion 900 million yuan, estimated that the circulation in 2015 could be more than 2 times that of last year. In April 3rd, the central bank issued a notice that it simplifies the management process of credit asset backed securities issuance, formally implements the registration system for credit asset backed securities, applies for registration once and independently issues them in stages.

China's bond issuance has been at a record high for 3 consecutive years. According to Bloomberg, China's Ministry of Finance predicts that local governments will issue at least 1 trillion and 600 billion yuan of bonds this year, 4 times that of 2014. At present, the excessive issuance of bonds leads to an increase in yields. According to the company, the relevant departments can respond to the issue by further opening the bond market.