Chizhou'S Lint Is In The Dark.

Cotton was worthless last year, so cotton farmers' cotton seed loss plus cotton seed subsidies have not yet arrived. Although the target price of cotton in Xinjiang has been released in 2015, it has been priced at 19100 yuan / ton.

The market is hard to predict in the future.

Anhui Chizhou continuous heavy rain for many days came to an end, nearly two days rain stopped cloudy, the temperature also increased.

It is understood that heavy rains and heavy rains have caused some local rape to be badly lodged. Although the rape has been crusted, the heavy rain has a very big effect on rape.

If the weather is normal, about 20 days or so, rape will begin to be bought and mature.

The beginning of sowing.

After Qingming, cotton began to bowl and raise seedlings.

But according to a local cotton seed dealer, cotton farmers began selecting seeds at this time of last year.

As of April 9th, local

The quoted price is 4900 yuan / ton, the cottonseed price is 1.02 yuan / Jin, the cottonseed is 1.07 yuan / Jin, the 1 channel is 3700 yuan / ton, the 2 pile is 3000 yuan / ton, the cashmere is 2500 yuan / ton, the cottonseed shell is 1700 yuan / ton, the light cotton is 7000 yuan / ton, the cottonseed quotation has dropped by 0.03 yuan / Jin, and other quotations of the cotton tree are basically stable.

It is also hard to see the improvement of lint spot. It is understood that the market has a large stock of lint, and more than more than 1000 tons, and less than more than 600 tons.

As of April 9th, the price of 3 grade lint was 13000 yuan / ton (net weight, carrying tickets and delivery). The amount of pickup was 200 yuan / ton, and the 4 grade was 12600 yuan / ton.

In addition, due to the sluggish sales of cottonseed oil, the cottonseed market is hard to disperse. Some cottonseed processing enterprises have cut down the price of cottonseed because they are eager to ship back the funds. Even so, fewer buyers in the lower reaches are flat, and at the same time, short staple is also difficult to make because of the high quoted price.

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According to the relevant analyst of China International Investment and trade Nanjing limited, the aim of Xinjiang cotton target price is to guide cotton growers to grow cotton through national policies, ensure the corresponding planting area, and ultimately decide the cotton price by the market.

It is not necessary for cotton enterprises to interpret the direct subsidy policy excessively, so long as they are considered according to the market supply and demand, otherwise they will think things more complicated.

In 2014, some enterprises themselves wanted to be complicated, which led to the phasing up of purchasing prices. As a result, everyone saw it.

According to the relevant people of COFCO Futures Limited, it is now in the period of concentrated cotton planting in the mainland. However, due to the influence of rainy season during the Qingming period, the sowing time has been postponed to varying degrees in various parts of the country, and the selection of the new year's target price at this time will play a great role in stabilizing the cotton planting area in the next year.

The price of 19100 yuan / ton decreased by 700 yuan / ton compared with the previous year, but this price is still far higher than that in the spot market. This is undoubtedly a news for the cotton growers in Xinjiang area. Therefore, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is not only stable, but also likely to continue to hit a new high. As of now, the state has not issued any announcement on the mainland subsidy, and some areas of the 2000 yuan / ton subsidy for the previous year have not yet been put in place, so the intention of the state to move cotton to the west is very obvious.

The state announced the target price of cotton in Xinjiang in 2015. Taking into account factors such as cotton production cost and income, market supply and demand, the State Development and Reform Commission issued the Xinjiang cotton target price level of 19100 yuan per ton in 2015.

But all kinds of conjectures about target price and subsequent chain reactions may become the focus of discussion in the market.

But all kinds of conjectures about target price and subsequent chain reactions may become the focus of discussion in the market.

We believe that cotton target price has little effect on cotton price and futures trend, although the new target price is down 700 yuan / ton compared with last year. According to our understanding, most cotton growers are satisfied with the price of 19100 yuan / ton.

At present, it is still mainly concerned with the following factors: (1) does the Corps purchase cotton again price cut? (2) when will the about 10000000 tons of national cotton store be thrown and stored? What price will be thrown away? (3) will the India CCI increase the volume of the national cotton reserves as soon as possible and reduce the price? (4) will the competitive fiber raw material of cotton also be recovered again because of the weak global economic situation?

So is it still feasible to reduce production in the early year of the market? In 2014, cotton production in Xinjiang reached 4 million 300 thousand tons. If this year, the increase in production of cotton planting area continued to enlarge, plus 897 thousand tons of import quotas, and about 10000000 tons of inventories, the worry of supply tension in the next year disappeared, and the impact on the far month contract was more serious.

At the same time, because last year was the first year of the implementation of target price management, cotton farmers and cotton processing enterprises did not understand the distrust of national policies, so that the price of cotton did not appear below the cost price this year, which also made China's textile enterprises languish.

So, on the basis of last year's experience, will this year cotton growers be able to sell less than the cost price while subsidized by the state to make up for the interest? This possibility is very great.