Emerging Economies Are Experiencing The Biggest Capital Outflow In The Past 6 Years.

Data from Holland International Group (ING) show that in the second half of last year, the total capital outflow from the largest 15 emerging economies amounted to US $392 billion 400 million, which is no better than that during the financial crisis. The group said that in the 2008 to 2009 financial crisis, emerging market capital outflows amounted to only $545 billion 900 million in the three quarter.

The group said the stronger US dollar led to a weaker currency in emerging markets and investors expected the fed to raise interest rates.

IMF also said this week that foreign exchange reserves in emerging markets fell for the first time since 1995.

Not stable Capital inflow Emerging markets may be in debt.

According to McKinsey's research report, by the end of 2013, emerging market The total debt has reached US $49 trillion, which accounts for about half of the increase in global debt in 6 years.

The McKinsey research report also showed that the proportion of China's debt to GDP increased by 83 percentage points between 2007 and 2013.

It is worth noting that the scale of corporate hard currency bonds in emerging markets has increased. McKinsey expects the bond market to exceed $2 trillion, which is more than 1 trillion and 600 billion of the US bond market. High yield The bond market. These hot money comes from investors with high risk preferences. They are driven by large amounts of money in the emerging markets.

"The United States is changing the way," David Spegel, head of the emerging market bond strategy division of BNP, Paris, told the financial times. "If this continues, long-term high cost financing will corrode the credibility of the issuers. As capital outflows are often accompanied by debt default, we continue to believe that emerging markets will face more difficulties. "

Spegel is not alarmist. With the sluggish real estate prices, the iron ore industry has been in crisis, and China's economic growth has slowed down. Russian domestic investors are also converting rouble assets into US dollar assets. Brazil broke out last month, accusing the government of mismanagement, resulting in high domestic inflation and financial crisis.

This allowed Kay to cut the growth rate of GDP in emerging markets from 4.5% last year to 4%.

HSBC economist Frederic Neumann has noticed that the margin of arbitrage spreads between China and abroad is also narrowing. He said, "despite China's current account surplus, capital outflows in the past six months have reduced China's foreign exchange reserves. As the valuation of RMB is becoming more and more market-oriented, it is hard for China to maintain a larger surplus.