Will There Be A "Collapse" Of The Gem?

Rafting: adults, I think the current growth enterprise index and the Shanghai stock index in December 2014 are almost the same. All of them are about 20% per month, which are seriously deviating from the moving average. After that, we can imagine that the stronger is finishing sideways and waiting for another two or three months.

But it will be repeated.

Reporter: in other words, no matter strong or meat, the gem index will not appear unilaterally, and will never come back.

Rafting: no matter how high the head is, it will eventually be picked.

There will never be anything that will never come back. Your old lady is pessimistic.

Moreover, it is still in the bull market. If the gem is to go, bears will have a distinctive sign. At least, it is not a sign. At present, it is a normal callback to return to 2050 points.

Reporter: This is not down about 10%, which is a normal callback. You have a very broad mind.

Rafting: Yes! Remember what I said when the Shanghai stock index was at 3400? Down to 3050 points were normal callbacks, and the lowest 3049 points were collected.

In this round, up to now, it almost fell by about 10%, which is a big stock index. Not to mention the small cap index now falling 10% is not normal. I mean, even if it falls to 2050, don't panic or return to normal. When it is abnormal, I will observe it.

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On the one hand, the gem, small and medium-sized board after more than two years of bull market rose, the main board after a half year's bull market rose, the stock market has appeared a large number of stock in the stock market, on the other hand, after the stock market hot, the effect of money effect, a large number of new investors into the market in the last half of the year, the stock market "rookie" likes to rise, I do not know the stock market, the stock price is very easy to pick up the stock price, the main ship of the main shipment of stock.

Therefore, current investors need to guard against two kinds of stocks with high stock prices.

Stock price is a kind of market trading price based on the intrinsic value of listed companies. Stock price not only reflects the intrinsic value of listed companies, but also can be divorced from the intrinsic value of listed companies.

When the stock price reflects its intrinsic value, investors are generally safe, and investors are generally unsafe when their intrinsic value is separated from them.

In the process of stock price operation, there are usually two situations that make the stock price high and the value of the listed company far away from the internal value of the listed company.

The first situation is that the herd mentality of the investors and herd thinks that a certain type of stock has the investment value or has the effect of making money, and a large number of investment influx into such stocks, causing the stock price to rise continuously, and create new heights repeatedly, and form the strong and strong trend to enter the virtual high state. At the same time, the investment psychology thinks that this kind of stock is the safest and the most profitable.

When such stocks fall and adjust, someone will pick up the stock. When such stocks are pulled up, more people will catch up.

From the current perspective, there are 500~600 stocks with a P / E ratio of more than 100 times with high risk. Many of the software and Internet stocks that are popular with the market have such risks. There are also a number of common medical stocks that have such risks.

The second is the stock pulled up in the last stage of the main force.

In the stock investment operation, there are always some main stocks in the stock market. After the main force is settled, they usually pull the share price to the interval from their own holding cost by bullish bull market, and then pull up a section to pull up their shipping space.

Once the stock price is higher than the main force, the main force is safe, but the other investors are very unsafe.

This kind of stock has 2009~2010 years' heavy stock in the past two years, and the stock has risen 3~5 times after a group of 2013~2014 years' main intervention. There are a number of companies whose stocks are generally in general but rapidly rising.

At this stage, the stock market fever is very high, and no matter what stocks are left.

Before the first half of 2014, when the stock market was bad, it was the game between the old shareholders and the old shareholders. Now a large number of "rookies" entered the stock market, and the stock market became a game between the old shareholders and the new shareholders. Many new investors were not very mature. In the coming months, there was a good play and the game of money changing pocket was opened.