PTA: Multi Single Continued Holding

In March 23rd, the PTA Asian market closed at 625 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton compared with the closing price in March 20th. The domestic East China market offered a strong 4560 yuan / ton, which was higher than the closing price of the previous day by 70 yuan / ton; Yisheng Petrochemical announced that the main port price was 4620 yuan / ton (+40), the US dollar price was 650 yuan / ton (0), and the raw material PX Asian market closed at 841 U.S. dollars / ton, which was 27 dollars / ton higher than the closing price of the previous day.

Sinopec's March settlement price was 4800 yuan / ton, unchanged from last month's settlement price; Asia ACP The settlement price reached $710 / ton in February. Xiang Lu Petrochemical launched the March listing price of 5000 yuan / ton.

As of today's statistics, domestic PTA Operating rate Small fell to 68.48%; upstream domestic PX operating rate dropped to 71.16%; downstream filament operating rate increased to 71%; PTA production 428 thousand and 500 tons before, inventory remained to 3-7 days or so; exchange The warehouse receipt increased to 72303 pieces, or about 361 thousand and 500 tons, which is close to the highest value of 369 thousand and 100 tons last year. But last week, the new delivery warehouse of the new stock was enlarged, so the warehouse receipt pressure was smaller than that of the same period last year.

Summary: upstream PX is affected by the rebound of crude oil and the parking of manufacturers. The price rebounded, which made the center of cost of PTA move upward continuously; the PTA operating rate increased due to the loss of manufacturers, and the operating rate declined. At present, social inventories and exchange warehouse positions were all relatively high. The spot market negotiations were general, PTA was stopped last week, and the Far East Petrochemical Company entered bankruptcy proceedings. Lower polyester profit is affected by a slight increase in PTA and glycol prices. The loss is expanding, and the polyester plant is gradually resuming its operation, with production quantified. The new registered warehouse approved by Zheng, which is concerned by the market, has been approved. It is suggested that we should continue to hold the day before yesterday.

Related links:

Judging from cotton consumption in recent years, the March after the Spring Festival should be a gradual increase in the procurement of textile industry in the lower reaches, which should have a positive effect on cotton prices. However, after the Spring Festival this year, cotton spot purchases showed a relatively cool situation, cotton futures also experienced several days of oscillation, and there was a continuous downward trend (since March, the 1509 contract of zhengmian main force has dropped to 700 points).

The reason is that the supply of cotton is relatively abundant, and the downstream purchasing is not flourishing. The direction of policy also affects the further direction of cotton market.

It is understood that the new cotton processing volume exceeded 1 million 600 thousand tons in 2014. On the eve of the Spring Festival, the people's Liberation Army related personage said that to sell more than half of cotton in the first quarter, but as early as the beginning of March, because the cotton price of the regiment group was higher than the domestic spot cotton price, the sales progress was only 1/4, which made the pressure of cotton sales of various divisions increased sharply.

Under heavy pressure, the cotton sales strategy of the regiment has changed. In March 3rd, it was widely reported that the regiment reduced the minimum selling price of cotton, and there would be a certain price discount for the purchase of large orders. As soon as the news came out, Zheng cotton futures fell, and prices continued to fall. There is no doubt that the sudden reduction of the price of the regiment to the domestic cotton market is a heavy blow, and there will be a certain decline in cotton prices.

As cotton production accounts for more than 2/3 of the total cotton output in the country, and there is not much left in the mainland cotton, the price of cotton directly determines the price trend of domestic cotton market.

Since the lowest sales price of the cotton picking machine was 13500 yuan / ton, it had a high price support for domestic cotton. "The price of the corps" is also a confidence expression for the market. Once the sale is announced, it will cause a chain reaction. Especially when the downstream consumption is not strong, it is more likely that the cotton will become cheaper and cheaper. Therefore, within a certain period of time, domestic cotton prices will move downward and may find a new balance.