Guan Qingyou: The Chinese Version Of QE Will Not Appear.

The Ministry of finance has previously said that it will replace the high interest local debt in the banking system and the market through the low interest local debt authorized by the state. The market will take this as a rumor that the central bank will subscribe to low interest local government debt.

Comments:

It is unlikely that it will be launched.

First, this approach is inconsistent with the ruling ideas of Chinese leaders: the core of the future market-oriented reform is to gradually break the rigid payment, not only will the Chinese version of QE be introduced, but even the limited default mode will be opened in the future; two, the legal principle is unreasonable:

"Article 29 provides that" the people's Bank of China shall not overdraw the government's finances and shall not be directly involved.

And underwriting treasury bonds and other government bonds ". The central bank can not bring the government into effect.

It has a legal basis.

Three is inconsistent with the current monetary policy keynote: capital is tight, but from the recent open market operation, the central bank is cautious in terms of "quantity" tools or "price" tools, and monetary policy should not suddenly jump to QE.

2. Since April, the city investment bonds have expired in large numbers. In the environment of land finance and tax contraction and financial revenue slowing down, new financing tools need to be replaced.

Recently, the capital side is obviously tight, affecting the replacement cost of stock debt, and will also squeeze out the main financing opportunities of the market. Monetary policy may appear loose, such as lowering the standard.

3. The way to deal with the stock debt in the future is mainly depending on the way of asset securitization, the purchase of bad assets by local Asset Management Co, and the replacement of creditor's rights by equity. The way of handling should be mild and gradual. Unless there is an uncontrollable situation, it is unlikely to adopt the QE like way to solve the problem of local government debt.

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Registration system reform has become the first topic in the capital market.

In his report on the work of the government, Premier Li Keqiang made it clear that we should implement the reform of the registration system for stock issuance.

The implementation of registration system reform this year is the general trend.

However, the registration system reform has also triggered many investors' concerns about whether it will bring vicious competition between the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.

Judging from the current public opinion, the IPO approval authority has become the mainstream scheme of registration system.

In response to this concern of investors, Gui Minjie, member of the CPPCC National Committee and chairman of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, participated in the meeting of representatives of the two systems of the securities and Futures Commission in March 7th. He said that after the registration system was implemented, if the right to audit was delegated to the exchanges, there would be no competition for resources and vicious competition among exchanges, but more consideration should be given to how to serve the real economy.

President Gui Minjie's statement is not surprising.

After all, as the chairman of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Gui Minjie is obviously unlikely to represent the meeting of the two sessions of the SFC system. The reform of the registration system will cause vicious competition between the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.

However, in personal view, Gui Minjie's statement, even if it is not a "Mandarin", is not too early to say.

It should be said that investors' worries about the vicious competition between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges are not redundant.

Historically, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange has had vicious competition for listing resources.

It is based on the existence of vicious competition in the past. Later, under the intervention of the high level, the market structure of the Shanghai stock market was mainly based on large cap stocks, and small and medium sized shares were listed in Shenzhen stock market.

The reason why the market again concerns the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange after the implementation of the registration system will set off a vicious competition for the listed resources, which is mainly due to two aspects.

First, the listing of IPO companies has broken the Shanghai stock market and dominated by small cap stocks.

At present, the issue of new shares on the market is issuing a large number of small cap stocks in Shanghai stock market.

This makes the competition between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange become inevitable.

Two, the implementation of registration system has created conditions for the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange to compete for listing resources.

Because in the implementation of the registration system reform, the IPO audit authority has been put on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

The two major exchanges have their own audit of IPO.

It is inevitable that the two exchanges will relax the auditing standards of IPO companies, or relax the examination of IPO companies, so that IPO companies can successfully pass the customs, and thus win more listing resources for their respective exchanges.

Of course, in oral terms, the two major exchanges will act according to the law, according to the regulations, but in the actual audit process, it is impossible to exclude the possibility of IPO company.

It is for this reason that the present system can not exclude the possibility that registration will lead to vicious competition between the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.

But whether it will lead to vicious competition between the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, the key is whether the matching system of registration system can keep up.

For example, under the background of registration system, the accountability system for the exchange and its auditors should be established to pursue the responsibility of dereliction of duty and the responsibility of committing crimes.

For example, a company that makes a false listing will be forced to withdraw from the market, and at the same time compensate investors for losses, and investigate the legal liability of the responsible person in accordance with the law.

If these matching systems do not follow, the vicious competition between Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges will be difficult to avoid.

This requires the management to introduce registration system, and the corresponding supporting system must be kept up.