Cao Zhongming: A Shares "Diamond Ten Years" Is Not Credible.

In the last few trading days of the year of the horse, the Shanghai stock index continued to recover.

Where does the stock market go from? Different brokers have different interpretations from different angles.

If CICC has a special interest in blue chips, it believes that the valuation of blue chips is still low, and suggests paying close attention to low price blue chips. Guotai Junan believes that the stock market in the year of Yang will show a trend of first suppression and back up.

Of course, CITIC Securities's view is undoubtedly the most striking among many brokerages.

CITIC Securities believes that the upward momentum of the stock market in the year of the sheep will mainly come from the three forces of monetary easing, capital market internationalization and reform acceleration, and the reconfiguration of funds under the joint action.

CITIC Securities also believes that A shares will open international "Diamond ten years".

At the same time, it also reminds investors to take precautions against risks such as increased market volatility and phased withdrawal.

If A shares really enter the "Diamond ten years" as CITIC Securities foreseen, the "pleasant goat" of the vast majority of investors is self-evident, which is not only a blessing for shareholders, but also a blessing for China's capital market.

Moreover, if we can go through the "Diamond ten years", A shares will enter another extraordinary development stage. The significance behind it is self-evident.

The question is, can A shares usher in the so-called "Diamond ten years"?

The big bull market in 2007 was a raging fire. Before that, the "thousand point theory" was a prophecy, but finally climbed to a historic peak of 6124 in October 16, 2007.

The trend is strong, and sentiment in the market has been detonated, either by investors or by brokerages.

It is against this background that "golden ten years" and "bull market second half" have made the market's eyeballs.

However, the "golden ten years" has not arrived. The "bull market" has evolved into an unpredictable seven year A share market. In fact, it can not be predicted at all. "Golden ten years" is the best proof of the sharp contrast with the seven years of big bear market.

The big bear market.

From the "golden ten years" to this "Diamond ten years", the core point of view is that it is optimistic about the market.

However,

In fact, there are too many viewpoints in the market which are similar to "golden ten years" and "Diamond ten years". Moreover, when some brokers launched the research report, they had the courage and determination to "never say die", and the sensational language such as "professional brain damage" and "two thousand yuan squeezing vegetable" had no real "research value" in addition to attracting investors' attention.

At present, the development of domestic brokerages has entered two major erroneous zones.

One is to steal market interest under the bright ring of innovation.

This is most evident in the two financial businesses.

Margin trading has become a broker dealer.

The fourth pole, but many problems found by the daily inspection of the regulatory authorities also indicate that some of the profits obtained by the securities dealers from the two financial businesses are stolen through violation of regulations. This also highlights that the securities companies abroad have lost their painful side.

The second major mistakes in development are reflected in the research report.

Overseas international investment banks do not need to say much about research and pricing power, but domestic brokerages are more keen on "fighting inside" and are more keen on "eyeball".

In fact, hundreds of thousands of research reports are published annually by broker researchers, but the real value is very rare.

Therefore, the research reports of domestic brokerages show that the pursuit of form is greater than the essence of content.

"Golden ten years" or "Diamond ten years" are all good for the future market, but they are not simple "duplication".

However, similar predictions do not make much sense.

I always thought that domestic brokerages could not always stay in the greenhouse under the care of regulators. The important thing is to go out and carry out PK with overseas investment banks.

As a CITIC broker, it is not a big thing to be a "big boss" in China. If we can have the right to speak in the global capital market, the "Diamond ten years" put forward by it will be really influential. Just like the "axe" of Wall Street, it is the same as the Internet bubble market.