Signs Of Stabilization And Recovery In Chemical Fiber Industry

Last year 1~11 months, China's chemical fiber production 40 million 320 thousand tons, an increase of 6.5% over the same period, the growth rate continued to fall over the previous few years, which is the normal performance of the industry in the adjustment period, is also the inevitable result of pformation and upgrading.

Output growth in the first half of the month increased month by month, showing a downward trend in the second half of the year, especially in the 7 and August off-season.

In terms of crude oil prices in the second half of the year, the prices of synthetic fibers also dropped sharply.

However, because the price of raw materials has dropped sharply, and the price of products has declined less than raw materials, the profit margins of chemical fiber products have expanded.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2014,

The growth rate of industrial added value is 8.5%.

1~12 months, the chemical fiber industry realized a total profit of 27 billion 730 million yuan, an increase of 11.21% over the same period last year.

The industry's deficit was 18.01%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the deficit of loss making enterprises increased by 9.46% over the same period last year.

In terms of industries, the polyester industry realized a total profit of 10 billion 409 million yuan, an increase of 10.64% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 13.71 percentage points.

Profits continued to grow, but the growth rate dropped significantly.

The staple varieties of man-made fibers are mainly acetate fibers, but the viscose fiber industry is more difficult to run.

At present, the production and operation of enterprises are more rational, controlling market load and decreasing investment willingness.

The industry gradually accepted and adapted to the "new normal" and further deepened structural adjustment.

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Zheng cotton main 1505 contract around 13000 yuan / ton fluctuating market has lasted for more than two months, recently has a breakthrough of 13250 yuan / ton pressure trend.

In this regard, the author believes that China's textile industry continues to run at a low speed, and the recovery process is relatively slow, laying a weak cotton price.

However, before and after the Spring Festival, supported by the demand for replenishment of some textile enterprises and the support of the Xinjiang regiment cotton sales, it is expected that Zheng cotton will rise in a weak position.

Cotton consumption is running at low speed.

According to the latest statistics, in December 2014, the added value of textile industry increased by 7.4% over the same period last year, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in November.

Looking back at the trend of the textile industry's added value in 2014, it has maintained a low level since the beginning of the year. However, there has been a rebound trend in terms of industrial value in recent months.

According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in December 2014, the export volume of textiles and clothing was 25 billion 674 million US dollars, an increase of 5.46% over the same period, down 1.24% from the same period last year.

In 2014 1-12, the export volume of China's textiles and clothing (above two categories) totaled 298 billion 426 million US dollars, an increase of 14 billion 436 million US dollars compared with the same period last year, an increase of 5.08% over the same period last year.

It can be seen that the textile consumption of the downstream cotton in China is still at a low speed, and the key to cotton price inflation is difficult to be restricted by consumption.

Xinjiang cotton quotes firm, cotton enterprises optimistic about the market outlook.

According to the statistics of Xinjiang corps, the cotton planting area of the Corps was 11 million 150 thousand mu in 2014, and the total output is expected to be 1 million 760 thousand tons.

As of February 10th, the Corps produced 1 million 680 thousand tons of lint and accounted for 95% of the total output, but the contracted sales accounted for only about 30% of the estimated total output.

Judging from the current situation, corps sales are very optimistic.

An important reason is that since the launch of the new cotton market in October last year, the regiment has not lowered its price in the light of spot slump and the continuous downward price of cotton at home and abroad. At present, the cotton picking is still 14500 yuan / ton.

Although the regiment is selling at a relatively high pressure, at present, the Corps still has a very high price.

Since Xinjiang's cotton output accounts for about 70% of the total output this year and the Corps accounts for nearly 40% of the total output of the whole country, the price of the regiment has a great impact on the spot market and has played an important role in stabilizing the domestic stock market.

And in the price of Xinjiang cotton, zhengmian futures price is also expected to rise.

Most cotton enterprises are optimistic about the cotton market after the Spring Festival.

The first is the theory of cost support.

At present, most cotton enterprises do not have large profit margins for the sale of lint. The cotton sales of Xinjiang Corps support the cotton market to a certain extent; the two is the cotton production reduction theory.

Most cotton enterprises generally believe that although the total quantity of Xinjiang cotton purchase has not been substantially reduced this year, the quality of Xinjiang cotton is definitely reduced. With the consumption of the products, the Xinjiang cotton market with good quality after the festival is expected to increase, and the three is the quota restriction theory.

The state has made it clear that the quota will not be increased, and if the textile enterprises want to obtain general trade quotas, they can only make the ratio of the number of enterprises buying the Xinjiang cotton and reduce the number of imported cotton, and the Xinjiang cotton market will get support.