Construction Of Enterprise Financial Crisis Early Warning System

(1) establish a short-term financial early-warning system and compile a cash flow budget.

Because the object of corporate finance is cash and its liquidity, in the short term, whether the enterprise can continue or not depends on whether it is profitable or not. It depends on whether there is enough cash for all kinds of expenses.

The premise of early warning is that the enterprise has profit. For a stable enterprise, its receivable, accounts payable and inventory are generally stable, so the net cash flow generated by business activities should generally be greater than net profit.

The compilation of enterprise cash flow budget is a very important link in financial management. Accurate cash flow budgeting can provide early warning signals for enterprises, so that operators can take early measures.

In order to compile cash flow budget accurately, enterprises should gather specific targets and express their expected future earnings, cash flows, financial status and investment plans in quantitative form, establish comprehensive budgets of enterprises, predict the future cash receipts and payments, and establish a rolling cash flow budget in weeks, months, quarters, half a year and a year.

(two) establish a financial analysis index system and establish a long-term financial early warning system.

For enterprises, a short-term financial early-warning system should be established while a long-term financial early-warning system should be established.

Among them, profitability, solvency, economic efficiency and development potential are the most representative indicators.

Profit is the ultimate goal of enterprise management, and also the prerequisite for the survival and development of enterprises.

From the perspective of asset profitability,

Represents the profit level of each dollar capital, reflecting the profit level of the enterprise using assets.

It reflects that the higher the profit level per dollar, the stronger the profitability of the enterprise.

For solvency, there are current ratios and asset liability ratios.

If the liquidity ratio is too high, the liquidity will lose the reinvestment opportunities. The average productive enterprises will be about 2, and the asset liability ratio is generally 40 to 60%. When the rate of return on investment is greater than the borrowing interest rate, the more loans, the more profits, and the greater the financial risk.

The two indicators of profitability and solvency are the two parts of financial evaluation of enterprises, and the level of economic efficiency directly reflects the management level of enterprises.

Among them: reflect the asset operation indicators include accounts receivable turnover rate and production and sales balance rate.

The growth rate of sales and capital preservation and appreciation rate should be chosen for the development potential of enterprises.

Generally, we use the improved efficiency coefficient method to carry out a comprehensive evaluation of enterprises, and set several values for each selected evaluation index. One is satisfied value, the other is not allowed value. We design and calculate the individual efficacy coefficients of various indicators, use ter Faye Fa and so on to determine the weights of each index, and use the weighted arithmetic mean or weighted geometric mean to get the average number, that is, the comprehensive efficacy coefficient, which can be used to quantify the financial situation of enterprises.

However, in order to meet unexpected needs and opportunities, enterprises should have the ability to take effective measures to change the flow and time of cash flow, which is financial flexibility.

It is mainly related to the net cash flow generated by business activities.

Indicators reflecting financial flexibility include: for measuring all enterprises

Liquidity level of working capital and total assets ratio, maturity debt principal repayment rate, net assets and tangible long-term assets ratio, accounts receivable and inventory turnover.

The ratio of net assets to tangible long-term assets is as follows:

From a long-term perspective, an enterprise can keep away from financial crisis and must have good profitability. The ability of external financing and debt paying ability of enterprises can be stronger.

Indicators are:

Although the above indicators can be predicted

But fundamentally speaking, the risk of an enterprise is caused by borrowing. An enterprise that operates exclusively with its own capital is only operating risk without financial risk.

Therefore, we must weigh the financial risk of debt financing to determine the debt ratio. We should compare the return on assets and the debt capital cost rate. Only the former is greater than the latter, in order to guarantee the repayment of the principal and interest and to realize the income of financial leverage. At the same time, we should also consider the solvency of debt, that is, how much cash the company possesses or the strength of its assets liquidity.

The assessment indicators are: the ratio of long-term liabilities to working capital, retained assets yield and debt equity ratio.

Among them:

(three) adopt appropriate risk strategies in combination with reality.

In the establishment of

After the early-warning index system, enterprise monitoring of risk signals, such as product backlog, quality decline, accounts receivable increase, cost increase, according to its causes and process, specify the corresponding feasible risk management strategy, reduce the degree of harm.

Facing financial risks, we usually adopt strategies such as avoiding risks, controlling risks, accepting risks and diversify risks.

The control risk strategy can be further classified into preventive control and inhibitory control according to the control purpose. The former refers to pre determining possible losses and putting forward corresponding measures to prevent the actual occurrence of losses.

The latter is to take measures for possible losses and minimize losses.

Due to the development of market economy, the use of financial leverage to raise funds for debt management is the way of enterprise development.

From a large number of debt management cases, it is not difficult to make a few lessons: mismanagement of business decisions, blind investment, failure to conduct thorough financial analysis and market research is the cause of the failure. Although moderate debt is a necessary way for enterprise development, it must be based on its own capital, such as excessive debt capital in capital structure, and inevitably vicious cycle.

At the same time, the debt paying ability of enterprises is the most sensitive index of debt management. From the solvency perspective, the lower the debt ratio, the stronger the debt paying ability of enterprises, but not necessarily reasonable, such as the interest rate of corporate borrowings is less than profit margins.

Enterprises should make full use of the advantages of debt management.

The liabilities of different industries are different in terms of their reasonable operation. Generally speaking, the primary industry is about 0.2, the second industry is about 0.5, and the third industry is about 0.7.