The Stock Market Is Leveraged To Curb The Financial Crisis.

On the evening of January 28th, the securities and Futures Commission said, "according to the overall arrangement, we will conduct on-site inspections of the remaining 46 companies' financing businesses in the near future."

Before that, the securities and Futures Commission has just completed the on-site inspection of 45 brokerages.

In January 29th, a number of insurance companies received the notice of the CIRC on the supervision of asset management business.

The financial crisis in 1929 is closely related to the leverage of securities market.

After the end of World War I, American companies benefited from stock financing. In 1921, the number of new shares issued in the United States was 1822, and in 1929, it rose to 6417, with an average annual issuance of 570.

With the financing fever and investment fever, investment trust funds appeared in large numbers. Before 1921, there were only 40 investment trust funds and 750 in 1929.

Since 1928, more than 200 investment trusts have poured into the market, with total assets exceeding US $1 billion, compared with less than 500 thousand dollars 3 years ago.

The subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 originated from credit fraud and high leverage from banks to investors. Some banks even reached dozens of times of high leverage.

Capital leverage has helped the stock market boom, and the stock market boom has stimulated the prevalence of leverage.

If the market is now in a high lever, it will be even worse than in 1929, when the US stock market rose as a result of the combination of technology superstition, economic growth and three factors of eliminating poverty, at least the US economy was developing well.

At present, there is no basic support for the rise of European and American stock markets. There is no obvious effect of eliminating poverty. Some are just an unlimited imagination of the Internet economy. Relying solely on the Internet economy can not eliminate excess capacity, trade imbalance and the decline in efficiency of traditional enterprises.

The A share market's rise is just like that of the European stock market. The lack of basic support is the common result of the capital market and the concept hype, so it will be so sensitive to the central bank policy and the regulatory lever.

The stock market rose mainly on loose monetary policy. Because of the low investment in real estate and commodities, Mrs. Watanabe and Chinese mothers invested most of their money.

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If speculation is excessive, there will be a terrible situation similar to the usury collapse. Many of the A share market investors who have strong gambling will not only lose their capital, but also fall into a serious situation.

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And money does not go into the real economy, and it is the greedy capital of the stomach.

It must be very clear that the risk is in the market. If the stock market returns to the bear market, the worst result will be the loss of wealth by the wife of Watanabe and the Chinese mothers. They will be ready to pay for the next fortune dream. If they are a highly leveraged market, they will form a debt chain between financial institutions and investors. Once trapped in the economy, it will be difficult for them to survive over the next 10 years.

At present, the collapse of local debt in some areas, the collapse of small loan companies and the Guarantee Corporation usury market is a warning to others.

Get into

There are few leveraged funds. According to the latest data released by the association of trustee associations, in 2014, the investment scale of capital trust to the stock market was 1 trillion and 840 billion yuan, accounting for 14.18%, of which the stock investment accounted for 4.23%, corresponding to the scale of about 548 billion 900 million yuan.

Compared to the 430 billion 140 million yuan at the end of the 3 quarter of 2014, it increased by about 118 billion 700 million yuan.

This means that in the fourth quarter of last year, on average, nearly 40 billion of the funds entered the A share market through trust.

Taking into account the increase in hot money in the stock market, as well as previous private usury situations often exceed the previous market forecast, the size of underground leverage funds may be greater than the estimated value.

According to the latest statistics, the estimated size of the umbrella trust has exceeded 300 billion yuan, double the estimated figure in December last year.

The data in early December last year were that the balance of margin in the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities exceeded 800 billion yuan, and the size of the umbrella trust was about 150 billion yuan.

As stated in the above data, the two financial balance doubled in two months, and the size of the umbrella trust was 2~3 times higher.

Two umbrella umbrella trusts are all leveraged products. Compared to the two 1:1 leverage, the leverage of the umbrella trust is 1:3, which is now down to about 1:2.

In the future, the umbrella trust will continue to exist, providing funds for professional investors and gamblers who gamblers, but financial institutions will take the risk away from them and raise the threshold to avoid the small and medium investors who are involved in the matter.

Shrinking two leverage, trust fund leverage and insurance fund leverage are equivalent to lifting the biggest wine glass to a small glass at the best time of the banquet, while raising the admission fee and continuing the risk, but people in the liquor pool know what they are doing.