The Threat Of Global Economic Deflation Is Becoming More And More Obvious.

Zhu Guangyao, Vice Minister of finance, said at the third annual meeting of the 50 Forum on wealth management, 30, that the threat of deflation in the global economy has become increasingly evident in the context of the sluggish recovery and the reduction of this year's economic growth rate by major international financial institutions. The euro zone has fallen into deflation, and the United States is facing tightening pressure. The impact of developed economies on the global economy will continue until 2015.

　　 Zhu Guangyao It is pointed out that Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen has previously suggested that the Fed will not raise the benchmark interest rate in the first two open market meetings in 2015. This means that in January and March, Federal Reserve The process of normalizing interest rates will not be implemented. Despite the reaffirmed patience of the Fed's January meeting, the basic judgment of normalizing interest rates this year has not changed.

After the United States withdrew from the quantitative easing monetary policy, Yellen indicated to the outside world that there are three basic levels of interest rate normalization process: the Federal Reserve judges that the US economy is in a strong recovery process, the Federal Reserve should ensure that the recovery process can continue, and the Federal Reserve should maintain full patience in implementing the normalization of interest rates.

He said, China's economy Growth should pay more attention to environmental issues and sustainability of growth, so that growth will develop along a healthy and sustainable track while increasing structural adjustment. In addition, we must change factor driving to drive innovation. We can not simply rely on inputs such as investment to stimulate economic growth. Instead, we must adapt to market principles and market economy principles, and promote economic development through innovation driven efforts by increasing innovation and reform efforts.

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Recently, the "management method of entrusted loans" issued by the CBRC is interpreted by the market as a measure to prevent the excessive flow of funds into the stock market by the regulatory authorities. Is this the case? Lian Ping, chief economist of the bank, thinks that the sharp rise in the stock market and the massive inflow of funds into the stock market mainly occurred in recent months, while the rapid growth of entrusted loans began in 2012, and there was no obvious correlation between the two.

Moreover, before the launch of the draft, there will be a lot of preparatory work, which usually requires more than half a year's deliberation. The management method of entrusted loans is mainly aimed at the current situation and problems of entrusted loan business. An important institutional arrangement starting from standardizing business is not directly related to restricting capital flow into the stock market.

Lian Ping pointed out that it is impossible to deny that obtaining funds through entrusted loans and entering capital markets in various ways is one of the possible channels for the stock market to get incremental funds in the near future. Since the management method clearly stipulates that entrusted loan funds should not be allowed to invest in bonds, futures, financial derivatives, financial products, equity and other investments, the funds that will not enter the stock market through this channel will be reduced after the formal implementation of the measures, but the degree of impact should be limited.

So is the introduction of management measures helpful to the real economy, rather than the idling in the financial system? Lian Ping believes that although the phenomenon of capital failure to enter the real economy does exist to a certain extent, most of the social financing has entered the real economy. The divergence between financial data and real economy is mainly caused by the lag in the transmission of financing to the real economy and the structural difference between liquidity and industry.

Lian Ping believes that the introduction of management measures will facilitate the entry of funds into the real economy. In recent years, there are some problems in the rapid development of entrusted loans. Some of the funds have entered the restricted industries such as real estate and financing platform, but in the near future, it is impossible to completely exclude the possibility of some entrustment loan funds entering the stock market. With the standardized development of entrusted loan business, these phenomena will gradually decrease in the future, and the raising and using of funds will be more reasonable. As an important part of social financing, entrusted loans will play a greater supporting role in the real economy.