GDP Index: Does "Speed Worship" Say Goodbye To This?

At the local two sessions held in the country, "GDP change" has become the focus of attention of Representatives and members.

As of January 29th, in the 28 provinces that held two local conferences, except for the fact that Shanghai did not set specific growth targets and Tibet remained the same level, the other 26 provinces had different levels of GDP growth targets in 2015 than in 2014.

Among them, the three provinces in Shanxi, Gansu and Liaoning had the highest reduction rate, about 3%.

As the most important political activity of the local government in a year, the major decisions of the two sessions have attracted much attention.

Has GDP worship been declared over for many years? What impact will this change have on social development?

One question: is the initiative to reduce or passive?

Down sharply everywhere

The growth target is directly related to the general poor performance of the regional economic growth in 2014.

Most of the GDP growth rates announced by 28 provinces in 2014 were not completed, of which 18 provinces had exceeded 0.5% of the target growth target, and Shanxi province had the biggest difference from the completion target, with the target set at 9%, and the initial accounting was only 4.9%.

In fact, the widespread reduction of GDP growth in provinces is not the first time this year.

Since the two sessions began in 2013, local governments have begun to "click" when formulating the expected growth target of GDP.

In 2012, the GDP growth targets set by the provinces were relatively flat compared with the previous year, and the growth rate of 8 provinces increased.

In 2013, the GDP growth targets set by various provinces remained unchanged in 18 provinces, and 13 provinces began to decline.

By 2014, the GDP growth targets set by the 31 provinces at the beginning of the year only increased in Heilongjiang and Hainan, and 22 provinces chose to "slow down".

Wang Yongjun, Dean of the Institute of Finance and economics of Central University of Finance and Economics, said that the speed of desalination is inevitable. At this stage, it is impossible and unnecessary to pursue the high speed of development.

Entered the crucial stage of reform.

More important than speed, we must strive for high quality with the enthusiasm of the past.

In the report of the two governments' work, Shanghai has become the only area that has not set specific growth targets. It has attracted wide attention and even triggered a heated debate on the topic of "whether the GDP will be abolished in the future".

Reporters found that at the county level, the abolition of GDP assessment has entered the exploratory stage of practice.

For example, Sichuan has canceled the GDP assessment of the key counties of the Tibetan areas, the restricted development areas and the vulnerable countries in the ecological poor development work. These areas exceed half the province's land area; and the Fujian province has canceled the GDP assessment indicators for the 34 counties (cities) listed as restricted development areas.

Two Q: does a downward index mean a recession?

"Investment growth is weak", "resolving the difficulty of excess capacity" and "striking contradictions in fiscal revenue and expenditure" have become the "high-frequency words" in 2014 in the provincial government's work report.

Many economists said that in 2015, the downward pressure on China's economy remained relatively large, and the overall situation of our economy in the short term was at a speed of growth.

The "three phase superimposed" market will not change during the labor period and the previous policy digestion period.

Therefore, the corresponding reduction of economic growth indicators everywhere is also reasonable.

Sun Lijian, director of the financial research center of Fudan University, said that as China's demographic dividend and export dividends reduced the economic growth.

With the support of small and medium enterprises, overseas investment construction, economic restructuring and other long-term measures, the incremental role of GDP will not be too obvious in the short term. It will also reduce the GDP stock to a certain extent even in eliminating backward production capacity. But these are the necessary stages for China's economy to climb over the ridge.

"China's economy has entered a new normal, and economic growth has changed from rapid growth to rapid growth. This is a requirement of objective economic laws.

Therefore, we should set up a new growth rate index to adapt to the new normal.

Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the State Council Counselor's office, said.

Moreover, there is a fact worthy of attention.

That is, lowering the growth rate of GDP or even setting up the target of growth is closely related to the change of GDP accounting system.

Ye Qing, deputy director of the Hubei provincial CPPCC Committee and Hubei Statistical Bureau, said that in previous years, there appeared the strange phenomena of the total GDP of the provinces and the results of the national total.

At present, the reform of accounting system is being carried out by the whole country, which makes our economic statistics from the "lower level" to "below the first level", and the "unified accounting" implemented since 2015, which makes the place of data fraud and numbers become smaller and smaller.

According to the reporter's interview, the "lower management level" means that the total amount of GDP in all parts of the country has been accounted for in all parts of the country, and it has been reported before the National Bureau of statistics is released again. The phenomenon of "water injection" is generally more widespread. "The next level" is the statistics of provinces and cities, which are provided by some provinces with some basic data, and then the National Bureau of statistics has unified accounting results. There is still room for appeals for objections to the results of the National Bureau of statistics. "Unified accounting" refers to the use of the national network direct reporting system. The National Bureau of statistics calculates the total amount of GDP in all parts of the country based on the data it grasps, without the participation of the provincial departments, and the local authorities can only wait for the results to be announced by the GDP.

According to the analysis of the industry, after the total GDP accounting rights are collected, the public relations, data modification and other chaos will be effectively eliminated before the end of this year.

At the beginning of the year, the government's work report did not presuppose the growth target, and it could also reduce the hard work of year-end work. Therefore, it would become a trend and normality for Shanghai to have no growth target in the future.

"The provinces and municipalities have written the GDP growth target into the government work report, which is an economic indicator that must be completed that year, and is still full of planned economy."

Liu Qiao, a professor at Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, said that with the deepening of global economic integration, the most important factor affecting GDP growth is the national macro fiscal and monetary policy.

Chen Jiada, director of the Legislative Affairs Office of Liuzhou, Guangxi, believes that in accordance with the spiritual requirements of ruling the country according to law, the GDP setting will be set up by the government to plan the growth plan, so as to strengthen the legal statistics of the market economy and make GDP and its growth rate a true reflection of the market.

Three question: how to assess the local government after the end of "one quick cover up a hundred ugly"?

"Reducing or not setting specific economic growth targets in some places does not mean that GDP growth can be relaxed, because structural adjustment in the absence of growth is futile."

Sun Lijian said that without presetting the GDP growth target, it does not mean that GDP is not assessed, nor does it mean ignoring GDP.

GDP needs to maintain a certain growth rate, which means the foundation of protecting new jobs and market confidence.

According to the measurement in the industry, GDP has increased by one point in recent years, and the employment increment that can be increased is around 1 million 500 thousand.

Reporters learned that, in recent years, the practice of abolished GDP assessment has diversified the characteristics of local governments and officials, making the assessment system more close to the actual situation of various localities.

For example, Sichuan province has carried out classified examination on 88 poverty-stricken counties, and has taken the emphasis on GDP and other economic indicators in the past to improve the living standard of poor people and the number of poverty reduction.

Since 2008, Laibin City, Guangxi, has not included the GDP and fiscal revenue indicators in the three counties under the jurisdiction of Jinxiu, Xincheng and Heshan, and has turned to the implementation of differential examination.

For example, Jinxiu County, with a good ecological foundation, focuses on indicators for ecological protection, tourism development and urbanization. Xincheng county's poor ecological base is Guangxi's restricted development area, severe rocky desertification, and key ecological environment management. Heshan is a resource exhausted city, with key indicators assessing industrial pformation and upgrading, shantytowns and ecological restoration.

Zhang Zengzhong, Deputy Secretary General of the municipal Party committee and director of the office of the deepening reform leading group, said that based on the practice of differential assessment, Laibin City implemented the "green GDP assessment" and adjusted the assessment projects to make the development of all regions more balanced and comprehensive, and the GDP data "did not decline or rise".

Jinxiu County used ecological protection, tourism development and urbanization to replace GDP, fiscal revenue and industrialization indicators. After the examination, tourism industry developed rapidly, and GDP and revenue grew rapidly for 6 consecutive years.

"Despite the abolition of GDP, industrialization and other indicators, we feel that the burden on shoulders is heavier. We need to invest more energy in doing well in ecological protection, poverty alleviation and development, improvement of people's livelihood, and so on."

Xincheng county magistrate Li Zhaohui said.

Not simply to talk about heroes in terms of GDP is also an important reform initiative promoted by the Central Committee in recent years.

The notice issued by the central organization department at the end of 2013 on improving the performance appraisal of local party and government leading bodies and leading cadres, stipulates that all kinds of examination and assessment of the local party and government leading bodies and leading cadres in the future should not only regard the Gross Regional Product and the growth rate as the main indicators of performance evaluation.

Wang Yongjun said that weakening the weight of GDP in the cadre assessment system and even directly canceling some areas will definitely be the general direction in the reform of the cadre assessment system in the future.

Instead of GDP, it will be a series of comprehensive index systems such as public service, market supervision, social management, environmental protection and so on. Most of these projects need GDP growth to support them. Therefore, if we are not only assessing GDP, we may have to work harder than before.