Wu Guoping: A New Wave Of Rising Waves Is Expected Before And After The Spring Festival

Recently, although the short term may go up, or even challenge 3478 points, but the stock index as a whole is a bull market midway concussion, carried out in the way of interval.

We can count the data of big bull markets in 06 or 07 years: the first wave began to adjust 51 trading days in September 2005, 17 trading days were adjusted in February 2006, 47 trading days were adjusted in June 2006, 27 trading days were adjusted in January 2007, 28 trading days were adjusted in May 2007, and the average time was 33 trading days.

The current round of concussion is the 16 trading day, which is half of the average time. That is to say, under normal circumstances, the concussion will continue to maintain until the Spring Festival.

There are two points to support this prediction: first, market rumors that the easing of interest rates and other easing policies will be more likely before and after the Spring Festival; second, weight.

Medium,

The real estate index and the coal index are all in turmoil. Only the non-ferrous metals index is relatively strong. It needs more time to get ready to launch a new wave.

Therefore, before the Spring Festival, it is very difficult to have new waves, and the stock index is more likely to maintain a large range of shocks.

The opportunities for the disk are mainly local opportunities, and the theme stocks will be more active.

Represented by the small cap stocks.

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It is worth noting that under the circumstance of global economic recovery, the ECB is likely to set off a "depreciation of exchange rate".

As early as the week before the European Central Bank announced quantitative easing, many central banks have taken the initiative to "self protect": the Swiss central bank has changed its face and the Danish Central Bank has cut interest rates for the three time in a row. This shows that the influence of the ECB's decision making and the potential pressure of "QE" on currency competition in other countries.

The United States and the United Kingdom are recovering and gradually withdrawing from the ultra normal easing. Europe and Japan will still linger in the ultra-low interest rate environment. Mohamed El, the chief economist of Allianz Group, wrote that the "differentiation" within the developed economies will trigger exchange rate movements between major currencies. The US dollar is facing further pressure on the euro and other currencies, threatening the economic recovery, which may exacerbate global policy tensions and intensify the political risks of protectionism.

For emerging economies, Schneider believes that the main influence of the euro version QE is the impact of hot money on the trade and financial markets indirectly brought about by the US dollar and the appreciation of the dollar. For China, it means that the pressure on the depreciation of the renminbi relative to the US dollar is increasing, the pressure of capital outflow is enhanced, and exports to Europe will also be affected.

However, El Aelianus believes that if emerging economies, including China, can advance their structural reforms, the advantage of commodity price decline will strengthen their position in the global economy, and will further strengthen their prospects of rebalancing the world economy.

In short, quantitative easing in the euro zone has brought new variables to the world economy after the crisis seeking new order and new balance.

Some analysts believe that in the future, in order to help the world economy resist the risk of deflation, the future cooperation between the euro area, the United States, China, Japan and the United Kingdom in monetary and fiscal policies will become more important.