Niu Wenxin: China'S Stock Market Was Kidnapped By Malice

The general logic is: from a technical point of view, the stock market is about to start a weekly adjustment.

This is a normal technical adjustment.

But at this juncture, a group of financial forces headed by UBS must not "link the depreciation of the Renminbi with the normal adjustment of the stock market". Roughly and logically, the stock market is down because of the depreciation of the renminbi.

I think a simple sentence is very dangerous behind it.

We need to see that in the past 5 years, under the policy of large-scale quantitative easing and zero interest rate, the dollar depreciation expectation is very strong (only because the euro depreciates at the same time, so the US dollar index and the Euramerican exchange rate can not be expressed), and the US stock market has risen all the way.

Throughout the process, we never heard of a financial giant shouting that "the depreciation of the dollar will suppress the performance of financial institutions, and the US stock market will fall".

Then why do they have the opposite accent when they come to China?

In fact, we must see through the mystery.

In the reality of China's economy, it is not only the A share that expects the Central Bank of China to "moderately relax the currency", but also from the downward pressure on China's economy, from the perspective of the high cost of corporate financing, there is an objective requirement of "moderately relaxing the currency".

But at the same time, we must also see that once the Central Bank of China implements the monetary policy which is looser than before, or intends to lower market interest rates, lower the interest rate of deposits and loans and lower the financing cost of enterprises, the devaluation of RMB is expected to follow the shadow.

Therefore, the secret we need to see is that financial institutions such as UBS and other financial institutions are adjusting the normal adjustment of the stock market and the expectation of devaluation of the RMB to prevent the central bank from loosening its currency and continuing to push up the appreciation of the renminbi.

This time, they used the practice of abducting the stock market, because at this moment, the Central Committee is very concerned about the stock market. It needs to rely on large-scale equity financing to help China complete a series of strategic and tactical objectives such as pformation and upgrading, international capital competition and deleveraging.

This is like 2010, when they cooperate with the US strategy, with the help of "four trillion will cause inflation" to kidnap the Chinese public opinion, kidnap the Chinese people, and force the central bank to tighten the currency, thereby pushing up the value of the renminbi.

We must see that although they use different tools, they have different aims.

Monetary tightening will trigger the appreciation of the local currency and monetary easing will cause currency depreciation. This is the inevitable economic law of an open economy.

Interest rate and exchange rate are only two sides of a coin, but they are two different expressions of the same currency price.

This is something that Chinese investors must see clearly.

Therefore, if we think that China's moderate monetary easing is conducive to the healthy rise of the stock market, we should not believe that the "depreciation of the RMB will suppress China's stock market".

Of course, we do not exclude the healthy and necessary technical adjustment of the stock market, but we must not be misled by the "malicious kidnapping of the stock market and the kidnapping of China's monetary policy and kidnapping of the renminbi".

We don't need to understand too much from a theoretical point of view. If we open our eyes to the reality of the developed countries in recent years, we will understand that the United States is extremely relaxed.

The economy has been restored, and the stock market has been developing at a record high level, which has filled the bad debts left by the financial crisis.

Note that in the whole process, the US dollar is expected to depreciate.

Japan followed closely, and now it is Europe.

Why can they relax arbitrarily and not allow China to relax? Why do they allow us dollar, euro, yen, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar to depreciate in value instead of devaluing the renminbi? Do we understand the underlying meaning?

Let's analyze the situation again: UBS and other agencies believe that depreciation of the renminbi will lead to capital outflow.

Our counter question: what kind of capital outflow will cause RMB depreciation? There is no doubt that the depreciation of the RMB will only lead to arbitrage capital and speculative capital outflow, while the depreciation environment of low interest rates will be beneficial.

Backflow.

Is that not true? Let's take a look at the situation in the United States, and everyone will understand.

Is it not the financial environment necessary for us to re industrialize? Low interest rates and long term depreciation of capital? Of course.

It is for this reason that we can see Japan.

Many developed countries in the world, following the United States, do not dare to neglect, because they are very worried that the world's scarce industrial capital flows to the United States.

We see that in the whole process, only in contrast to the Chinese practice, we are encouraging "going out" and actually driving away Chinese capital, which is really puzzling.

Such a high interest rate, short term capital and appreciation of the financial environment - driven by industrial capital environment, China's downward pressure on the economy is not strange.

Let's take another look at their argument: devaluation of the renminbi will suppress bank performance.

This is even more "bullshit".

The depreciation of the renminbi will only increase the pressure of external debt repayment.

Is there a large amount of foreign debt in China's banking industry? In those years, is China a capital exporter or an importing country? If it's a capital exporting country, why do we need to borrow a lot of foreign debt? In addition, 18 major commercial banks, as the market makers of China's foreign exchange market, have large amounts of foreign exchange in their hands. These foreign exchange losses are in the process of RMB appreciation, and if the RMB depreciates, these foreign exchange losses will not only decrease, but they can even make money.

Not bad.

In the environment of RMB depreciation, which industry and enterprises are involved in more foreign debts, which industry and enterprises are unlucky.

But we must understand that the RMB will not depreciate in a short time.

Because when we observe financial problems, we must link them with key words such as time, magnitude and quantity.

So I believe that as long as the RMB does not depreciate in a short time, there will be no financial risk.

On the contrary, the low interest rate and capital long-term process corresponding to the depreciation of the RMB will certainly increase the profit of China's real economy, thereby stimulating the continuous growth of China's industrial investment, especially equity investment.

Such a business environment is to increase or reduce financial risks, of course, to reduce financial risks.