Factory Profits PTA Increase

　　 PTA The industrial chain is affected by the stabilization of crude oil prices. Prices of naphtha, PX and downstream polyester varieties have rebounded to varying degrees. Among them, the spot price of PTA rose from the lowest 4300 yuan / ton to 4430 yuan / ton. The rebound of upstream price is a way to follow the price of crude oil, while the rebound of downstream polyester market is a kind of bottom picking behavior of terminal weaving.

Looking ahead, we believe that the pressure on the PTA price is still greater. downstream polyester Demand has been decreasing. Terminal weaving is a labor-intensive industry, parking every year during the Spring Festival. The Spring Festival in 2015 is no exception. The weaving rate has dropped from 78% at the end of November 2014 to 63% in the middle of January. Polyester maintained a high operating rate in the fourth quarter of 2014, but in January, the operating rate declined slowly.

It is reported that during the Spring Festival, there are 4 million 700 thousand tons of capacity. Polyester enterprises It will check and stop the car. The downstream is in the decline stage of the start-up rate, and PTA itself is in the stage of increasing supply. In early January, two enterprises will stop driving before the end of January. From the view of PTA price and production cost, the PTA factory is profitable at this stage, and has strong willingness to start, and the supply of PTA will increase at the later stage.

The situation of the PTA industry chain is that upstream crude oil prices oscillate, while PTA's own supply increases, and demand slowly declines. A risk point that can not be ignored is the behavior of storehouse in every link after low price. Since the middle of January, despite the decline in weaving operation rate, the enthusiasm for weaving polyester stocks has also been higher. The prices of polyester varieties have risen to varying degrees, and polyester production and marketing have also been peataged. The reason is that the stabilization of crude oil prices makes the market imagine the price of crude oil to turn.

On the other hand, polyester prices have fallen below the low point since the financial crisis in 2008, a record low, and the market is expected to have limited space below, and the motive force for stockpiling goods will be bigger. In addition, the current delivery date from the 1505 contract is far away, and the strength of the funds is relatively large. This leads to the fact that even if the polyester terminal does not store PTA, the arbitrage trader will also actively buy PTA spot while the spot price spreads, and the spot price of PTA will also rise.

In general, although the supply of PTA is large, the spot price has rebounded sharply under the impetus of capital, but the market has not changed. PTA still has new capacity, PX is still surplus, and the market needs to wait for the gradual accumulation of contradictions.