Economic Growth Is Expected To Lower The Level Of The Slow Bull Market Can Still Be Expected.

Although economic growth is expected to go down, the stock market is still expected to continue.

Analysts believe that the recent adjustment of the stock market does not mean that

The end.

The pace of capital running may slow down, but the direction has not changed, plus the risk-free interest rate downward. The valuation level of A shares still has room for improvement. The profits of listed companies are expected to benefit from the reduction of financing costs and the development of merger and reorganization activities and structural reforms.

For no risk

Trend, Chongyang investment believes that no risk interest rate is stable and a slight drop is a big probability event.

In the background of slowing down economic growth and gradually bottoming, the demand for real economy funds is stable and weak, and risk-free interest rates tend to go downwards. However, under the influence of interest rate marketization and the rolling financing demand of stock debt, there is little room for significant drop in risk-free interest rates in the short term.

If the pace of financial reform is faster than expected, the development of capital market will promote the proportion of direct financing, and financial deleveraging will go smoothly. At the same time, rigid payment will be broken orderly, and government platform debt will be effectively alleviated.

Analysts say Enterprises

Still facing some pressure, slowing economic growth and excess capacity are the main factors that drag corporate profits growth.

However, there is no need to be too pessimistic about the impact. External demand is steady and raw material prices down may support some industries' profitability improvement, and the reduction of financing costs will also help to boost the profit margins of enterprises. Especially the further activity of mergers and acquisitions will make some enterprises' profits improve rapidly, and the implementation of state-owned enterprises reform will help to improve the business efficiency of enterprises, so the stabilization of corporate profits should be a big probability event.

Specific investment strategy, Wang Sheng, chief strategist of Shen Wan, said that in the first quarter, Shanghai composite index was expected to oscillate at 3100-3600. At present, big blue chips and gem are in a dynamic equilibrium state. It is difficult to widen the gap in the trend of change. The risk gains of white horse growth stocks and blue chips are very different. When the positions, styles and main industries are not repaid, investors should maintain a relatively balanced configuration.

With the advent of the annual report, the more reasonable and more reliable products are expected to get excess returns. Some of the sectors that are lagging behind in 2014, such as electronics, light industry and pharmaceuticals, may be able to dig up some opportunities to make up for inflation.

Chongyang investment believes that after the valuation revaluation round in 2014, the revaluation of major asset prices is coming to an end, and the internal average return of A shares is basically completed.

The investment opportunities of A share market in 2015 are structural rather than systematic. They will shift from the mean regression to the value discovery in past years, and the unfalsified value expectation can turn to verifiable value discovery.