PTA Social Inventories Have Always Maintained A Moderate Level.

During the period, polyester load was basically maintained above 80%, and downstream good demand coordination with some PTA enterprises cut down and shut down, making PTA social inventory always maintain a moderate level, to a certain extent, alleviate PTA pressure, PTA decline is significantly lower than raw material decline. Entering the 2015, the price of polyester products fell more than raw materials, showing a sharp decrease in profits and losses in some varieties. Polyester production and sales rate dropped significantly, inventory rebounded rapidly. Under such circumstances, the load of polyester enterprises is difficult to maintain high, and consumption of PTA will be reduced.

In terms of upstream raw materials, Goldman Sachs report sharply cut the expected price of international oil prices, and it is expected that crude oil prices will drop to around $40 a barrel in 3 months. In the Bank of America report, oil prices may fall to $35 a barrel. UBS analysts believe that the price of WTI crude oil will fall to $40 a barrel. At present, the situation of Asian naphtha is not optimistic, and Japanese stocks hit a new high in the past two years.

PX due to the large scale production in 2014, the market supply is loose, and the current profit situation does not cause PX enterprises to cut down production. In December last year, China's PX imports once again refreshed the history, up to 1 million 178 thousand tons, according to the calculation, domestic PX stocks increased by more than 200 thousand tons. In addition, 1 million 600 thousand tons of PX were put into operation in the first quarter, and PX profits could be further compressed.

　　 PTA Production has recently returned to profitability. Yisheng Dalian's 2 million 200 thousand tonnes of production capacity has dropped to 68% after parking. However, the installation of Sheng Hong's equipment is expected to return to the top 70% soon, and the overall market supply is still excessive. Polyester enterprise The Lunar New Year Plan parking is better than last year, with only about 4 million tons of capacity. It is estimated that the polyester load will be maintained at around 7 in February. PTA enterprises are able to maintain more than 7 load in the first quarter due to the early shutdown and overhaul. The surplus situation is difficult to resolve. In addition, the first quarter BP and Hengli 3 phase total 3 million 450 thousand tons of PTA capacity production, PTA1505 contract will usher in a larger sell-off, the expected period will be lower than the spot price.

From the investigation of the operation of the main weaving bases, the situation of weaving business continues to decline, orders are reduced significantly, and sales are slow. Most factories are only in the stage of building inventory, and the rate of start-up continues to decline. Rigid demand Lower. A few years ago holiday parking concentrated in January 20th to the end of the month, a small number of orders persist in early February. At the end of the year, due to the low price of silk at the end of the year, most of the downstream companies have the idea of bottom reading, but the time for the bottom reading is rather hazy, waiting for the upstream price to stabilize.

In December 2014, the export data of textile and clothing were very bad. Textile exports amounted to 9 billion 754 million US dollars, up 0.17% compared to the same period in 2014. In 2014, it accumulated 112 billion 100 million US dollars, up 4.9%, down 0.4% from 1-11 months, down 6.76% compared with 2013. Clothing exports 15 billion 920 million US dollars, down by 2.09% compared to the same period last year, and 1-12 months accumulated dollars. Although textile and garment export tax rebates increased from 16% to 17%, the export promotion is expected to be limited. On the contrary, the uncertainty of the RMB exchange rate increases the risk of export and the buyers and sellers are cautious. In 2015, textile and garment exports are expected to have limited demand for polyester polyester.

In short, there is no sign of rebound in crude oil, and the focus of the PTA industry chain will continue to follow. As the weaving enterprises enter the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream demand will decrease significantly. PX will join the deficit again because of more import and new capacity pressure. PTA is in the case of excess supply, the increase in inventory losses, prices will continue downward.