Before The Spring Festival, Long Staple Cotton Has A Rising Process.

First, there is no suspense in the production of long staple cotton. at present Long-staple cotton The official figures for output have not yet come out, but some agencies and websites are not optimistic. The mainstream figure is 5-5.5 million tons, which is much lower than that predicted in October last year of 65 thousand tons.

Second, other resources are basically bottomed out. First of all, Chen cotton before 2013, due to the straight decline of long staple cotton in the first half of 2014, the domestic cotton and ginning mills have gradually put the mentality of "selling or selling up". Chen cotton Sold out. Secondly, Pima cotton and Ji Zha cotton are also at the bottom of the market. In addition, the price of cotton has been falling all the time in 2014, and international cotton traders and traders dare not place large orders. It is estimated that the imported long staple cotton in 2 and March will still be difficult to find.

Third, domestic Cotton price The trend of stabilization. Since late December last year, domestic cotton has seen a steady trend, especially in the Xinjiang regiment, which has led to a slight rebound in the prices of some high-quality Xinjiang cotton and high quality real estate cotton, and the overall atmosphere of cotton has warmed up, bringing support to long staple cotton.

Fourth, the profit recovery of textile enterprises. According to the textile enterprises in Ji Lu and Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, the price of medium high count yarn and high cotton yarn has remained stable since December last year, and the profits of enterprises have risen to 1000-2000 yuan / ton, especially the textile enterprises' operating rate has returned to 70% level, and some resources are expected to be purchased before the Spring Festival. In particular, the high staple yarn manufacturers with staple cotton staple cotton are more urgent for raw material supplement.

So, is the long staple cotton's spring pace near? Let's keep a close watch on its trend.

Related links:

After the new year's day, international oil prices continued to show an avalanche trend in the Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States, and fell 12% in two weeks. Goldman continued to cut down oil prices to $40 / barrel in the near future. Then the UAE joined the ranks of Kuwait and Iraq to lower the price of crude oil from Asian customers to Saudi Arabia. In addition, the UAE insists on increasing crude oil production to 3 million 500 thousand barrels per day. Iraq also adhered to its capacity target of about 8 million barrels per day, and plans to produce 4 million barrels per day in 2015, higher than the current 3 million to 3 million 500 thousand barrels / day production level. On the other hand, the US crude oil output reached 9 million 132 thousand barrels per day in the early January, and the weekly ring ratio rose by 11 thousand barrels per day. The high productivity of the shale oil revolution in the United States is still at the stage of release. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States will continue to suppress the oil price strategy before the growth trend of US crude oil output is not reversed, and international oil prices will continue to fall.

In December last year, China's PX imports reached the highest level of 1 million 178 thousand tons. In the same month, the domestic PTA plant took the largest parking inspection operation in history, and the PX consumption of the month was limited, and PX's monthly final inventory also hit a new high.

On the other hand, Asia's PX production capacity has entered an accelerated release cycle since last year. This year, the 1 million 600 thousand tons PX capacity of Sinopec Sinopec will be put into operation in the two quarter. It will be able to rush to repair the equipment with Tenglong aromatics 1 million 600 thousand tons after the Spring Festival. However, there are still new PX capacity deliverages in the peripheral countries such as India, while the current naphtha PX still has 50 to 60 US dollars / ton production profit. Under the background of increased supply and inventory pressure and the collapse of oil prices, it is expected that the PX price of raw materials will still be substantially lower.

As of January 13th, polyester plant operating rate dropped to 80%, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate dropped to 66%. Tracking pet link cash flow and inventory, with the decline in raw material prices and terminal demand seasonal weakness, polyester production and marketing for five consecutive weeks to maintain a low level, the average stock rose to a level of 13 days, the cash flow also fell to 90 yuan / ton nearby, is expected before the end of Spring Festival terminal demand trend weakening continue, polyester link start up rate will decline, and then to the upstream raw material form drag.

In addition, since the large-scale shutdown of the PTA plant in December last year, the current operating rate has been maintained at 71%, and the spot price of PTA has reached 4280 yuan / ton, and the cash flow of 54 yuan / ton is calculated at the cost of processing 720 yuan / ton. If the processing cost of Yisheng 550 - 600 yuan / ton is calculated, the cash flow will still have 200 yuan / ton. Therefore, the new round of large-scale maintenance operation is difficult to take place, and terminal demand is gradually weakening, and the social supply pressure of PTA will also gradually increase. Yisheng has implemented the mainstream port self marketing mode since the beginning of January, and has gradually lowered the port's self raised price, guided the spot market to descend, and its January contract price has been lowered by 400 yuan / ton to 4600 yuan / ton, less than 200 yuan / ton of Sinopec and Hengli's 4800 yuan / ton, and the PTA spot market's price war and the market share competition also have the promotion sign.