Overall, China'S Foreign Trade Will Continue To Grow Slowly In 2015.

Two factors led to less than expected growth in foreign trade in 2014.

The overall competitiveness of China's foreign trade has not declined.

In 2014, China's import and export growth was lower than expected. In addition to the slower recovery of the world economy than the beginning of the year, it was largely a drag on imports and even negative growth.

In the first 11 months of 2014, China's exports increased by 5.7%, not much lower than expected, while imports increased by only 0.8%.

In the month of November, the import was 6.7% negative growth.

The trade surplus reached 332 billion 480 million US dollars in the first 11 months.

Since 2014, the main reason for the weak growth of imports is the sharp fall in commodity prices in the international market.

From 1 to November 2014, the volume of China's bulk commodity imports remained stable.

The import value of the first integrated commercial IC products increased by 5.6%. The other commodities listed in the front rank according to the import value: crude oil, iron ore, primary plastic (editor's note: plastic raw materials, etc.), soybeans.

In addition to the primary plastic, the average import price of these commodities has declined to a certain extent, and thus the growth of import value has been lowered.

The drop in import volume is relatively large, and coal is down by 9.4%.

This is mainly due to the adjustment of domestic energy structure and the reduction of coal consumption.

The fall in commodity prices has reduced the cost of production and operation of enterprises and is beneficial to the recent export growth.

But sustained deep fall may lead to turbulence in the international market, triggering economic and financial crises in some countries, which are very unfavorable for the stable recovery of world economy.

In addition to the weak external demand, another reason why the growth rate of imports and exports in 2014 was not as good as expected was due to the underestimation of the high base trade between the mainland and Hongkong in 2013 and the inflow of speculative capital.

Excluding these factors, the actual growth rate of China's foreign trade in 2014 should be over 5%, and the export growth rate should be higher.

In the context of the profound adjustment of the world economy and the slow recovery of market demand, WTO predicts that the volume of Global trade will grow by only 3.1%. China's import and export performance shows that the overall competitiveness of foreign trade has not declined.

Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about growth rather than expectation.

Five major characteristics of foreign trade pformation and upgrading in 2014

Service trade has become a new growth point of foreign trade.

The slow growth of the world economy and the weakening of the traditional competitive advantage in China have given the domestic export industry more and more pressure. At the same time, this has also become the driving force for technological progress and industrial adjustment and pfer.

In the first 11 months of 2014, the effectiveness of the pformation and upgrading of foreign trade continued to emerge.

First, the export of high value-added goods increased.

The main products are not ready to sell, but the products, brand products and excellent products with new designs, complete functions and good performance price ratio still maintain a relatively fast growth.

From 1 to November 2014, traditional labour intensive exports, such as textiles,

and

As a result of the grade, the rapid growth of 5.3%, 6% and 12.6 was achieved respectively.

The export price of shoes increased by 6.2% over the previous year, and exports of motors and generators, automobiles and auto parts also increased rapidly.

Second, the growth rate of general trade is higher than that of processing trade.

After processing trade is getting worse and worse, many of the former processing trade enterprises begin to turn to general trade.

From 2014 to November, general trade imports and exports grew by 5.6%, of which 1 of general trade exports increased by 10.6%.

The total trade value accounted for 53.9% of the total value of imports and exports, 1.1 percentage points higher than that in 2013.

The import and export of processing trade increased by 3.3%, and the proportion of processing trade to import and export was basically the same as in 2013.

Third, the proportion of private enterprises' import and export is increasing.

From 1 to November 2014, compared with the growth of import and export of foreign invested enterprises and the decline of state-owned enterprises by 0.9%, the import and export of private enterprises increased by 6.2% and the growth rate was higher than that of other types of enterprises in the period from 1 to November.

The total value of imports and exports of private enterprises accounted for 34.5% of China's total foreign trade, up 1.2 percentage points from 2013.

Fourth, the central and Western Regions

The growth rate is faster than that of the East.

Data in the first three quarters of 2014 showed that imports and exports in the central and western regions increased by 17.3%, much higher than the national growth rate, contributing 68.4% to the growth of foreign trade and 14.7% of the total value of imports and exports, an increase of 1.8 percentage points over the previous year.

In the eastern region, foreign trade is in the throes of structural pformation, and the growth rate of import and export is generally not high.

Fifth, steady growth in the import and export of several major markets.

From 1 to November 2014, China's trade with Europe and the United States became stable.

Bilateral trade between China and Europe amounted to US $557 billion 460 million, an increase of 10.1%.

Sino US bilateral trade total value of 502 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.4%.

The total value of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN is 432 billion 720 million US dollars, an increase of 8.4%.

Sino Japanese bilateral trade totaled 285 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.4%.

The total value of bilateral trade between the mainland and Hongkong was 333 billion 250 million US dollars, down by 7.7%.

Although China's trade in goods has been on the single digit scale for third consecutive years in 2014, trade in services has maintained a two digit growth.

The total value of China's imports and exports in the first three quarters of 2014 was US $430 billion 500 million, an increase of 10.2% over the same period last year.

Among them, service exports amounted to $157 billion 200 million, an increase of 6.8% over the previous year, and service imports of $273 billion 300 million, an increase of 12.2% over the same period last year.

Service trade has become a new growth point of foreign trade.

The deficit in service trade was larger than that in the first three quarters, which amounted to US $116 billion 100 million.