Yi Xianrong: The Risk Of Investment Seems To Come To Us.

Saxobank's recent investment report indicates that the volatility of the stock market is expected to be greater in 2015, especially if some unexpected events occur beyond conventional forecasts, which will bring about tremendous changes in the international investment market. The reports suggest that the black swans flying out of the international investment market in 2015. There may be ten black swans flying out in the international investment market in 2015.

However, since the investment report can predict that these ten events may happen, then it will not become a "black swan" incident. Because, generally speaking, the "Black Swan event" is a very unpredictable and unusual event, which usually leads to negative reactions or even subversion in the market chain. From the subprime crisis to the tsunami in Southeast Asia, from the 9.11 incident to the sinking of the Titanic, "Black Swans" exist in all fields, no matter financial market, business, economy or personal life, they can not escape its control. That is to say, the black swan event has three characteristics: one is unpredictability; the other two is unusual events; and the three is the possible negative impact of chain events after the event. Therefore, in this paper, since Sheng Bao bank's investment report is forecasting events that may occur in the international investment market in 2015, these predictions are not "Black Swans" but the risks of international market investment. In the view of Sheng Bao bank, the ten major events are:

First, Russia's economy is brewing a perfect storm, and Russia's risk of default has increased sharply in 1998. But it is not the state-owned enterprises that may default in the future, but the Russian government.

(the report puts Russia's investment risk in the first place, which is related to the national geographic position of the writer. Because Russia's ruble crisis in 2014 did not end in 2015. Conversely, in the case of strong US dollar and continued oil slump, Russia's ruble crisis may be even more serious. However, as long as the government fails to go bankrupt, its default risk will not be higher than that of the enterprise. The ruble crisis is not the result. Therefore, the biggest investment risk in the international market is not the Russian rouble crisis, but the strength of the US dollar. Please note that the comments in brackets are my comments.

The two is the eruption of the Bardarbunga volcano in Iceland. The active volcano erupted on a small scale in August 23, 2014. Due to the location of the eruption below the ice, there was no eruption of ash. However, once the outbreak occurs, it will affect the whole European economy and people's life and investment market. However, even if the incident happens, its impact is also partial.

The three is Japan. Inflation rate Rose to 5%. To achieve this, the Bank of Japan's policy of further expansion will further increase, and the yen will continue to depreciate and Japanese asset prices will rise.

(if that happens, it means that Andouble's economics has landed successfully. The impact and impact on the international investment market will not be small. Because the Japanese central bank's policy of increasing its size is not only the depreciation of the yen, but also the flooding of the international market. The yen led trading spreads prevail. At the same time, it also means that the Japanese economy has been out of the doldrums of 20 years. This is conducive to global economic recovery.

Four is the resignation of Delagi, the governor of the European Central Bank. The report pointed out that Delagi's ability may have reached the limit. Only if he left the stage could Europe's QE fall to the ground, otherwise it would not be able to save the European economy. It is estimated that this overestimates Delagi's role in the European Central Bank. Under the institutional arrangement of the European Central Bank, it is difficult for anyone to take the European economy out of the difficult position through the European Central Bank.

The five is the debt spreads of European enterprises. This is not the prediction, but the possible outcome of the ECB policy. The impact of the incident on the global market should be carefully observed.

Six, hackers destroy online shopping. (I have an article devoted to this analysis).

The seven is the depreciation of RMB 20%. The report pointed out that due to the serious excess capacity, China's PPI has been in decline for nearly 3 years. depreciation The pressure will be bigger and bigger. If the renminbi does not depreciate greatly, China's real estate and credit bubble will eventually burst. This prediction is a bit too pessimistic and impossible. If this is the case, then it is the real "black swan" incident. Because the current RMB exchange rate is dominated by the government. As long as the government wants to push forward the internationalization of RMB, it will not let the RMB depreciate significantly. However, when the US dollar is becoming stronger and stronger, the depreciation of the RMB will also make China's economy in a predicament. This will seriously affect China's export to non dollar countries such as Europe and Japan. It is also easy to continue to push up domestic asset prices and increase the bubble. The Chinese government will be in a dilemma.

The eight is cocoa period. futures Up to $5000 per ton. The nine is the collapse of the British housing market. The ten is Britain's referendum from EU citizens in 2017. (for the latter three events, even if it happens, the impact on domestic investors will not be too great. However, it is a big concern for investors who have entered the British real estate market and are preparing for the British real estate market. Because in 2014, the real estate market in the UK was already being adjusted.

In short, it is of course uncertain whether the above events will occur. However, most of these events have little impact on international market investment. Only a few events are very influential, such as Japan's inflation rate to 5%, the depreciation of the RMB 20%, and the deterioration of the Russian Ruble crisis. If these events really happen, the risk of investment in the international market may increase, and domestic investors should pay close attention to them.