Apparel Retail Sales Increased 1.2% In November

Recently, the US Department of Commerce released data showing that the retail sales rate of the country grew by 0.7% in November, better than the market expected growth of 0.3%. Automobile and clothing have become the main factors that drive sales growth.

Among the 13 categories of statistics, 11 of them are products. demand Improved. In November, the sales volume of car dealers rose by 1.7%. In addition to cars, the core retail business in November Sales rate An increase of 0.5%.

The growth of core retail sales is mainly affected. clothing Sales drive. In November, sales of clothing in the United States increased by 1.2%, of which retail sales increased by 1%.

In addition, sales of electronics and electronics stores increased by 0.9%, furniture industry sales increased by 0.5%, building materials and garden equipment sales increased by 1.4%, bar and restaurant sales increased by 0.7%, sporting goods sales and health and personal care sales also increased by the same rate.

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According to statistics, China's leisure apparel industry has a capacity of over 800 billion yuan. It is the largest industry in the field of garment segmentation. Now it has entered a mature stage. In the face of the impact of fast fashion and electric business, we must change. At present, China's leisure apparel industry CR5 is less than 3%, far lower than 7% of overseas. In the future, the demand for heavy experience, brand and quality has a tendency to concentrate on leisure leading products. Benefiting from the fourth baby boomers, the second child policy and the family structure of 4+2+1, we believe that after 2012, the baby industry chain is ushering in the golden period of development. As far as children's wear market is concerned, it is still in the stage of rapid growth. The growth rate of children's wear industry in 2013-2018 years is expected to reach 10-15%.

At present, the per capita consumption of children's clothing in China is only 14 US dollars, which is less than the 1/5 of overseas mature markets. CR10 rose from 5% in 2008 to 9% at present, but there is still huge room for development compared with 26% in overseas markets. In the future, children's clothing market concentration is expected to accelerate rapidly with consumption upgrading.

The company has significant advantages in brand operation, channels and supply chain. Based on this, 2014 began to actively change, and the strategic transformation in 2015 is expected to accelerate. The focus of adult casual wear is channel sinking and franchisee flattening, and it is expected to maintain steady growth in the future. Children's clothing is still growing rapidly. Barbara and the new brand still have larger extension space, and accelerate to enter the shopping center, endogenetic and epitaxy growth simultaneously. More importantly, the transformation strategy of children's industrial service providers that combine children's products to online, offline, product, education and cultural dissemination will speed up, and the company will have many bright spots in the future.

First, the multi brand structure is emerging, and the foundation of the channel is transformed. In the future, we hope to realize one-stop shopping collection shop on the basis of multi brands and all categories, so as to adapt to the new consumption situation. Secondly, the layout of the baby industry chain, Future Ltd is expected to continue to carry out children's education, animation, film and television, games and other related fields of investment mergers and acquisitions, the company into a comprehensive one-stop children service platform. Finally, we try to test the water quality and price of the Internet, and explore the supply chain reform.

We expect 2014-2016 years EPS to be 1.65, 2.02 and 2.48 yuan respectively, corresponding to dynamic PE, respectively, 22, 18 and 15 times. The company's fundamental trend is good, the strategy is clear and the foundation is solid. The transformation will help open up the future development space, the first coverage, give the "recommended" rating, and give 6 months target price 50.5 yuan.