Textile And Garment Industry Investment Strategy In The First Half Of 2015

Textile manufacturing industry: the fundamentals of the industry are expected to improve in 2015, and performance growth is expected to continue to rise.

First, under the influence of high inventory and direct subsidy policy, it is estimated that domestic cotton prices will continue to maintain a weak trend in 2015, but the decline will slow down and the decline will be less than that in 2014.

As textile enterprises have tried their best to

When raw material inventory is reduced to a minimum, the adverse impact of falling cotton prices will be less than 2014.

At the same time, the international cotton price is expected to continue downward because of global output and stock demand, and China's imports will decrease. However, the demand for ASEAN and Mexico and other countries and regions is still strong enough to form a certain support, and the expected fall will be less than domestic cotton prices. Therefore, the price difference between domestic and overseas cotton is expected to continue to narrow.

Second, it is expected that overseas demand will continue to recover. The recovery process in the US and EU continues to push forward, while Japan is still in the doldrums. But because of the Japanese government's decision to postpone the consumption tax increase plan for October 2015, consumer demand may not improve, but it may not continue to deteriorate.

Domestic demand is expected to get out of the bottom and gradually rebound.

Maintain prudent recommendation ratings for the industry.

In 2014, the plates were mainly small plates.

The concept stocks are fry.

In the late stage, with the implementation of registration system approaching, the hype of stock restructuring will gradually ebb and face a larger callback risk.

In 2015, the investment opportunities of the sector may come from the very good stocks, such as the leader of Lu Tai A, the Rebecca pformed from the hair products manufacturer to the brand operator, the Huafu color spinning company with great elasticity of performance, the deep textile industry that actively promotes the industrial pformation and the opportunities for SOE reform, and the Zhonghe shares that have been pformed into the lithium battery industry.

Apparel home textile industry: domestic terminal retail growth may be flat or slightly higher than in 2014; but online shopping keeps growing rapidly, and penetration is expected to increase continuously. The scale of mobile terminal shopping will maintain rapid growth.

After more than two years of adjustment, it is expected that the strength of Xiaguan stores will slow down in 2015, and the efficiency of single store operation will gradually increase.

Online operation has gradually entered a good state, including some companies that have used online as a stock drain to gradually explore the differentiated operation strategy on the outgoing line. It is estimated that online revenue will still maintain a relatively fast growth in 2015, and the proportion of revenue will continue to increase.

The industry fundamentals are expected to gradually bottom up. It is expected that the overall performance decline will gradually narrow in 2015, and sub sectors will still be divided. Among them, the leading animation costumes benefit from the extension of the animation industry chain and the opening of Disneyland, and the performance will maintain rapid growth.

Home textiles is expected to maintain steady growth, and the performance decline of casual wear, footwear and high-end women's clothing is expected to gradually narrow and usher in the turning point.

Maintain a cautious recommendation rating on the plate.

The 2015 investment opportunities of the sector may come mainly from two main lines: the fundamentals continue to be good stocks, such as Maison, Pathfinder, Semir, home textiles and so on. The fundamentals are expected to rebound and low potential, such as Saturday, Langer, AOKANG international, etc.