Shi Jun: Gold Long Battle In Guandu, Desperate Counter Attack

As the first day of super week, yesterday's market showed the power of super week.

Gold opened at the time of opening and falling rapidly, the advantage of the empty seems to have been determined from the opening time, but from yesterday afternoon time, gold bulls began to fight back in despair, and the Japanese line finally recovered the 1200 pass and stood on top of 1207.

Non US currencies rose to varying degrees, but the euro was relatively weak.

In the US stock market, the three major indexes were depressed by the risk of risk aversion, of which the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.29%, closing at 17776.80 points, the NASDAQ index down 1.34%, closing at 4727.35 points, and the S & P 500 index down 0.68%, closing at 2053.44 o'clock.

Yesterday, the manufacturing data in China, Europe and the United States were relatively low, and Moodie lowered the credit rating of Japanese government bonds, which led to the emergence of risk aversion in the market. Yesterday, the VIX panic index rose 7.20%, and gold rebounded sharply in the low position, the largest single day fall in 20 months. The US dollar against the yen dropped below 118, indicating that market sentiment is dominated by risk aversion.

Dudley, chairman of the New York fed, expressed his views on the Fed's first interest rate hike yesterday. He believes that the Fed's interest rate increase in the middle of 2015 is more reasonable. The US economic growth in 2015 will not be disappointing or shocking. For inflation, Dudley also holds a more optimistic view. He believes that the US inflation rate in 2015 is biased or even higher.

Dudley's remarks are more neutral, not anxious to raise interest rates, but also optimistic about the US economy. With the continuous recovery of the US economy, Dudley will gradually favor the support of raising interest rates next year.

Today, the Australian Federal Reserve held the December interest rate resolution meeting. The interest rate of the Australian dollar has remained unchanged at 2.50% level as expected, which is consistent with market expectations. This is also the Australian dollar's interest rate that has remained at 2.50% for sixteen consecutive months. Besides, in the following speech, the RBA kept repeating the previous remarks without any novelty.

After the interest rate decision, the Australian dollar recovered all its downtrend.

Australian dollar yesterday's opening decline did not last, and the afternoon began to follow the trend of non US currencies, but the overall increase was limited. From the daily charts, the Australian dollar could be regarded as the low cross trend yesterday. Therefore, today's trend is more critical for the late Australian dollar. If the daily line is again overcast, the decline will be determined again in the late Australian dollar. The closing line indicates that the Australian dollar's short-term strength is mainly rebounding. Today, we are concerned about the resistance test of cross star 0.8540 on Thursday's last day, and the downfall is the opportunity to sell again, and stop the loss above 0.8580.

The New York dollar line still maintains a concussion between 0.7660 and 0.7990.

Yesterday NYSE's rise failed to break through the crosshal resistance of last Thursday's daily line of 0.7865. The pressure on behalf of the upper line was greater, and Today New York still needs to test the resistance again and test the break again, then the strength of the new dollar's fall will appear, and the new dollar will return to the 0.7780 line again after the 0.7840 fall.

Short wait for 0.7865 test run down, stop loss 0.7890, target 0.7780.

The United States and Canada continued to be affected by crude oil yesterday. The uplink of crude oil led to the strength of the Canadian dollar, and the United States and Canada also returned to the bottom of 1.1400.

From the four hour chart, the United States and Canada are supported by 1.1310 today, and the strength of the uplink is rising again. The uplink of the day will be revisited to the 1.1390 front line, while the US and Canada short line strength is not suitable for operation. It is suggested that we wait for the 1.1300 to 1.1290 first line test, and then enter the US Canada central line again, and stop the loss 1.1260.