Jin Xuewei: Common Sense Will Not Let Us Down So Much.

In general, apart from the trend and stocks, I will tell him some details in detail and systematically teach them how to use composite average and buy pivot to pick stocks. After finding good targets, I think of a question -- market driving force, and what market should be frying this stock? Once buying, we will keep a close eye on the most important measurement target, and we will not sell easily unless we have various indications that it has reached the point where it can not be sold.

Of course, I am glad that the students are over the master, especially when I assure the shareholder that he will become a very good investor. But an investor who has learned only a few simple methods and ideas has more than 20 years of experience, but the reason is intriguing.

There are two pieces that may reveal the mystery.

As more and more bird strikes threaten the safety of aircraft, Boeing has asked NASA's engineers to design a special cannon, which can kill dead chickens as shells, hit the Boeing cockpit glass, simulate the impact of high speed flying in the air and birds, so as to test the safety design of cockpit glass. Airbus Company engineers hope to use it to test the newly developed Airbus windshield. Of course, it's no use. After paying high fees, the test system was shipped to the French Airbus headquarters.

On the day of the test, the dead chicken was launched from the barrel and struck at the 200km windshield on the windshield glass of the Airbus, but it scared the Airbus engineers to death. Because the dead chicken not only broke through the windshield, but also interrupted the driver's seat, and finally passed through the hatch door, and the whole chicken was stuck on the passenger bulkhead.

The aircrew engineers who were weak in their legs felt that their design was so fragile that they changed the design in a hurry. Finally, Airbus told Boeing about this horrible test result and attached the unique and detailed windshield design plan of the Airbus, hoping that Boeing could provide suggestions for improvement.

When Airbus paid $10 million in consultation fees again, Boeing quickly replied, but there was only one line: "Defrost the chicken first (chicken thawed)".

This is a passage I saw this week. Another is seen more than 30 years ago: Americans fly into space, but they have a problem. Due to weightlessness in space, the ball pen is leaking oil, which affects astronauts' records. NASA has spent millions of dollars to solve the problem of developing a ball point pen that can be written in space without weightlessness. So he thought of stealing and how the former Soviet Union solved this problem. In the end, it cost $1 million to get a secret from a former Soviet Union who was willing to provide information.

These two pieces are similar, interesting, but thought-provoking. We may show high intelligence before complex problems, but we often lose our way before the simplest common sense problems. And the probability of getting lost before common sense is directly proportional to our qualifications, education and knowledge. The reason why a young man can surpass his master is that he is a blank sheet of paper. He grasps the simplest and the most essential thing. The first thing I tell him is that I think they are the two indispensable parts of stock investment -- price driving and market driving. But in their own investment, it is unavoidable to consider too many problems, make simple things complicated, and ignore the most important common sense.

Speaking of the current big city, November 17th has become a dividing point. Before this, people generally expected that Shanghai and Hong Kong will bring several results: the market is going higher and higher, soaring sharply, the target takes 3000 points directly, the blue chips will accelerate revaluation, and the small cap stocks will be destroyed. But after November 17th, the market's expectations have undergone a 180 degree turn: head, 300 points decline, return to 2200 points, become the basic views of some big coffee and big V.

In fact, from a common sense point of view, this result is well understood. The stock market is a highly anticipated and efficient market that is expected to happen tomorrow. It is likely to happen today. 10 from the end of the month to the middle of November, the sharp rise of financial and other large cap stocks is the expected performance. From a game point of view, the Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong started in November 17th, which is a good time to take advantage of these opportunities. This is also the reason why the larger the amount of money bought on that day, the greater the decline. Because there is a lot of money to buy, it can be sold quickly. It is common sense that we often talk about death and games.

Look at the energy again. From the end of 10 to the middle of November, for 3 consecutive weeks, the weekly turnover of the 300 financial index reached 195 billion 300 million yuan, 235 billion 100 million yuan and 406 billion 500 million yuan, with an average daily turnover of 81 billion 300 million yuan. The rise in stock prices is driven by capital. The larger the amount of money required to go up, the greater the amount of capital invested by 800 billion yuan and the Shanghai stock exchange with a daily average of 13 billion yuan. Can we support this kind of stock going up? This is a problem that can be solved by common sense.

As for Shanghai Stock Exchange, A shares and international investment concepts will not be able to get common sense. Because the essence of stock investment is the same, it is all about buying the future, but different markets have different emphasis and style because of the economic structure, the development stage of the national economy and the varieties of the listing. US stock market and Hongkong equity market Is that the same? Is Hongkong the same as Germany and Britain? Are they the same as Britain, the United States and Germany? Shanghai-Hongkong Stock Connect A few hundred billion yuan of capital injection, at best, is to improve "one side is too strong, one side is too weak". It can not change the A share gene, only to integrate and hybridized the two investment concepts, so that the market looks more balanced.

The above view has been discussed in the big bull market, big shock two weeks ago. Now let's see whether the expectation of falling to 2200 is also against common sense. The 2200 point is the position in August of this year. The average margin of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 712 billion 500 million yuan in that month. As of last week, the margin balance has increased to 877 billion 100 million yuan, an increase of 23% over the average in August, while the index rose by only 13% during the same period, and the market value of A shares increased by only 14%. In other words, the growth rate of funds is far more than the growth of index and market value. Moreover, no matter how much money Hong Kong and Hong Kong can bring in, the capital of the market has increased. The absolute amount and relative amount of capital have increased, and the stock market has to go down sharply. Obviously, this is also against common sense.

Step by step, step by step, we are on this round. bull market The basic theory of characteristics. The current market quotation starts at 1974 points on the monthly line, and 203 points at the bottom from 2177 to 1974, and 2402 points by 1.11 times. The minimum value of CDP at the bottom of the month is 2030 points. The CDP value of August consolidation is 2215 points, the first value center of the current market, and 2215 2-2030=2400 points. Taking the 2400 point as the core point, making a value center with a vertical drop of more than August is more reliable. It is also necessary for the future market to rise from 2700 to 2800.