EU Report - 2016 China's GDP Growth Rate Has Entered 6 Era.

The European Commission released its autumn economic outlook report in 2014, which lowered the world's leading position on Tuesday. Economics In the next three years, China's economic growth is expected to continue to slow down, down to 6.9% in 2016.

Jyrki Katainen, vice chairman of the new European Commission, who is responsible for employment, growth, investment and competitiveness, and EU economy The latest autumn outlook report was announced jointly with the finance, taxation and Customs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici on the second working day after Juncker's European Commission took over.

Because of the slow economic recovery in the two quarter of the European Union and the euro area, the high frequency index deviated widely from the forecast, and the inflation rate continued to be far below the 2% target. Compared with the spring forecast data released in May this year, the report lowered the growth expectation of the 28 countries and the euro area in the next three years.

The growth rate of GDP in the 28 EU countries and 18 euro zone countries in 2014 is expected to be 0.8% and 1.3% respectively (the spring report is 1.2% and 1.6% respectively). The report further reduced the growth rate of 28 countries in the European Union and 19 countries in the euro area (New Lithuania in 2015) from 2015 to 2% and 1.7%, respectively.

The report shows that this year European Union And the euro area inflation rate will be only 0.6% or 0.5%, although next year this data will rise to 1% and 0.8% respectively, and climb to 1.6% and 1.5% next year. The EU and eurozone unemployment rates will continue to break through 10% and 11% respectively this year and next. The risk of low inflation and high unemployment rate that continues to beset the European Union and the euro area is still very significant in the next three years.

However, the EU is not just looking at the local economy, but has also lowered its growth expectations for the world's major economies. Among them, the Russian economy in Europe and America sanctions will be reduced to 0.3% in the next two years from 1% and 2% in May, but the Russian economy is expected to grow 1.2% in 2016.

In the shadow of deflation, the growth rate of Japan's QE easing in 2014 has been further reduced to 1.1%, and the growth rate in the next two years is expected to continue to decline to 1%.

Although the scale is small, the EU has also cautiously assessed the economic growth rate of China and the United States, and has fine tuned compared with the spring report. The EU says that the US economy that has withdrawn from QE will grow from 2.2% to 3.1% and 3.2% in the next three years.

Integrating the Chinese government's initiative to adjust the trend of economic growth in order to achieve the "economic rebalancing" and prevent the overheated real estate investment and the uncertainties related to the potential of economic growth, there are still other related factors. The EU forecasts that China's economy will slow down, from 7.7% last year to 7.3% in 2014, 7.1% in 2015 and 6.9% in the 6 era in 2016.

The EU said that China's economic growth was weak in the first quarter of 2014, and the decline of the real estate industry was particularly strong. The inflation rate continued to maintain at a low level of around 3%. However, a series of small-scale stimulus policies and the recovery of exports to Europe and the United States after May led to a steady growth in the two or three quarter.

At the same time, several high frequency indicators in recent months are very complex. In August, the industrial production index fell to the lowest level in 2008. The real estate market continued to languish, but the purchasing managers' index remained stable and the retail sales index performed well.

Household income growth has further stimulated personal consumption, but nearly half of the total GDP growth is still investment expenditure, of which nearly 1/4 of investment is directly related to the real estate industry, which will also be the most downside risk facing China's economy.

However, China is also taking steps to get rid of over reliance on the real estate industry and turn to the "economic rebalancing" of high consumption demand and high quality and low investment.

Another important thing to note is that local and corporate debt and major financial risks, including shadow banking, have long been alarmed.

In the import and export trade, the EU's economic retrogression will affect China's growth in export trade. The good news is that the volume of trade in goods and services exported to the United States is expected to continue to rise.

The EU also said that China's fiscal and monetary policies will continue to be relatively relaxed. Although the central bank has not adjusted the loan rate, the interbank interest rate below 3% is nearly a percentage lower than that of the 2013 annual average. From January 2011 to January 2014, the exchange rate of RMB (6.1262, 0.0017, 0.03%) has appreciated by nearly 20%.

In addition, fiscal policy will continue to relax. The Chinese government will continue to implement the planned stimulus. policy To achieve this year's official growth target of 7.5%.