Crude Oil Down Chemical Fiber Market Down With Textile Industry Killed

The textile market showed a sharp fall in October and a slight rebound.

In October 17th, a record low of 882 points, according to the latest business data, the textile index has picked up slightly, and the textile index is 885 points as of October 31st.

From the list of prices of textile bulk products in October, we can see that the first one is to fall more or less. Only 3 of the 21 textile raw materials tracked are rising, namely dry cocoon, acrylic fiber and acrylonitrile.

A total of 17 commodities fell by a month, or -2.51% this month.

Two is the PTA industry chain all "bottom", led by PTA down 14.41%, polyester FDY, polyester staple fiber,

POY, polyester DTY.

Three, most of the products this month hit a new low this year. They even fell by more than 20%, like cotton and PTA, down 24.17% and 22.16% respectively from the beginning of the year.

This month, the chemical fiber market, except acrylonitrile industrial chain continues to rise slightly, the remaining chemical fiber products "annihilated", of which the most obvious decline is the PTA industry chain.

Although in late June, the industry chain has rebounded slightly, but the market is still weak on the whole.

The main reason for the analysis is that the downside of crude oil directly leads to the weakening of the cost side, plus the PTA load increased by more than 70%, so that its current supply exceeds demand and its own stock has increased.

In addition, the demand is not obvious in the peak season, such as nylon, viscose staple fiber and spandex drop more than 5% year-on-year.

Supply and demand "vacuum period" cotton prices plummeted after

Beginning in mid September, the domestic cotton market price had a "plunge", which fell by more than 12% in just 1 months.

Cotton prices began to stabilize and rebounded slightly in mid September.

The main reason is that in August 31st, the sale of national reserve cotton was stopped in 2013/14, and now it is in the "vacuum period" of supply and demand of cotton. Many textile enterprises indicate that raw materials stocks are "bottoming out", eager to purchase and replenishment, and driving up cotton prices. At the same time, with the promotion of cotton picking and acquisition, due to weather and other reasons, cotton can not normally open up. In the market, it is considered that domestic cotton output in 2014 is lower than the previous forecast.

The textile industry is affected by many factors, such as the international market downturn, RMB appreciation, labor price rise, weakening of competitive advantage and so on.

In September, the retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles were 103 billion 700 million yuan, up 11.1% over the same period last year.

The retail sales of clothing commodities in 50 key large retail enterprises nationwide increased by 0.1% over the same period last year, 5.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and terminal retail still lingering at the bottom.

Meanwhile, China's commodity supply and demand index released in September was -0.56, which rose by -1.99%, reflecting the manufacturing industry in that month.

Last month contracted state, the economic downside risk increased.

Xia Ting, an analyst with business and textile industry, thinks that high inventory is a serious problem for the cotton textile market, and only ten million tons of state cotton stocks are enough for textile companies to consume for two years.

In addition, the domestic cotton is still not competitive enough compared with the outer cotton. The price difference between the domestic yarn and the outer yarn is further widening, and the price of replacing the raw material and chemical fiber is dropping. In this situation, the cotton market is bearish. It is estimated that the cotton price will fluctuate at 14500 yuan / ton in November, and the cotton yarn fall will be in the range of 300-500 yuan / ton.

As for the weakening of crude oil in the chemical fiber industry, the supply pressure of PX increased in the fourth quarter, and the high load of PTA was still difficult to change. Although the high opening rate of downstream polyester factories alleviated the accumulating speed of PTA stocks later this month, the industry was still in a cumulative state, with an estimated current of about 240 thousand tons.

Heard that the November PTA large device downtime maintenance plan or boost the market, is expected to be weak in the aftermath of the main shock.

At the same time, entering the textile industry in November will soon enter the low demand season. It is expected that the textile market will continue to be weak, or "early winter", the lowest around 860-865 points.