Mo Kaiwei: There Is No Need To Make A Fuss About The Slowdown In Bank Profits.

From the data point of view, the profit of banks has increased to a single digit growth rate in the past two years, and the low digit growth will become the norm. According to the CBRC data, in 1~9 months, the net profit growth rate of agricultural banks in the 5 countries was over 10%, reaching 10.48%, which was significantly lower than the 14.91% growth rate in the same period last year. The other four big companies' net profit growth rate did not exceed 10%. Whether the slowdown in bank profits is a joy or worry? We need to take an objective and scientific attitude to evaluate it comprehensively.

On the one hand, China's economy has entered a new normal growth stage, and investment driven economic growth has become a history. At this stage, the real economy, especially the manufacturing industry, has relatively low profit, mostly between 5%~10%. The slowdown in bank profit growth shows that banks have implemented various preferential financial policies to support the development of the real economy, that is, lowering interest rates and credit thresholds, so that a large number of small and micro entities that need credit support have received credit support.

At the same time, it also reflects. commercial bank The ability of self-regulation has been further strengthened, and the regulation on charge management has been strictly implemented. The charging behavior of intermediary business has been continuously standardized, and the competition among banks has become more rational, and the financial ecological environment has been more optimized. The growth rate of the total fee income of the 16 listed banks continued to slow in the first three quarters, and the five state-owned commercial banks were more affected. In the three quarter, the fee income increased by 9%, slower than the 13% in the two quarter. From a realistic perspective, the slowdown in bank profit growth is the return of banks to the real economy, not only the expectation of the real economy, but also the hope of the central decision-making level.

On the other hand, the slow growth of banks reflects the rational management concept of priority for bank risk prevention, which is commendable. First, the decrease in profits of some commercial banks is mainly due to the formation of a large number of bad credit assets in the supporting real economy. For example, the non-performing loans of steel, photovoltaic and small and medium solid manufacturing industries in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have been rising continuously in recent two years, which has brought greater pressure to bank credit assets security. Therefore, Bank In order to reduce operating risks, it is advisable to cut down bad loans with profits and decrease profits. This is a wise business decision and is not worth making a fuss about.

The two is that some commercial banks have increased the ability to resist risks and increase the loss of credit assets to a greater extent, which has also resulted in a decrease in profits, which is actually a more mature and preferable business behavior. In the three quarter, the total operating income of the 16 listed banks increased by 14.8% over the same period last year. The net profit of the total net profit attributable to the shareholders increased by 9.7% over the same period last year. The difference between the growth rate of earnings and profits was mainly due to the provision of large scale strength. This is the right strategy choice under the background of the continuous fermentation of asset quality and pressure. Moreover, the signs that the 16 generation of listed banks in the three quarterly report is not stable at a high rate is stabilizing the market. This is the result of vigorously reducing the bad loans. It helps to dispel the pessimistic anticipation of the market's accelerated deterioration of asset quality and enhance the ability of banks to resist risks. This is the realistic choice for China's banking industry to develop in a benign direction.

Banking Net profit The decline in growth does not explain how bad banking has become, and in the global industry, China's banking sector remains above average. If banks earn less profits and transfer more profit margins to the real economy, they will be conducive to the overall development of the economy, and the negative impact on the slowdown of bank profits should not be overextended. At the same time, we should also see that under the influence of interest rate liberalization, Internet Finance and financial disintermediation, the cost of bank deposits has risen sharply, and the growth rate of deposits is obviously slower than that of loan growth. With the continuous advance of interest rate marketization, the high cost of deposits will continue to perplex the development of banks. It is imperative for banks to accelerate their strategic transformation and realize the transformation from scale expansion to quality and efficiency, so as to ensure a new profit growth point.