Tan Yaling: The Rise Of The US Dollar Continues To Benefit From The Stimulus Policy

This week, the US dollar index of foreign exchange market has been stimulated by a large stimulus factor. The US dollar index has gone up obviously. The highest level has exceeded the level of early October. The highest point in a week is 86.524 points, the basic point is at the 85 level level. To this end, the dollar changed against the euro in the week, and the euro depreciated further. The exchange rate between the two currencies was 1.26-1.25 dollars, and the euro fell significantly. In particular, the US dollar to yen exchange rate is the biggest variable, the exchange rate level is 3.7% a day, the yen exchange rate from 108 yen to 112 yen, the yen depreciation is very striking. The US dollar also moved up to 1.59 US dollars against the pound, and the pound fell below the US $1.60 mark. The dollar also rose with the Swiss franc and Canadian dollar exchange rate, and the Swiss franc and Canadian dollar fell to 0.96 Swiss francs and 1.12 Canadian dollars. The base point of two currencies a week is from Monday to Thursday at 0.94-0.95 Swiss francs and 1.11 Canadian dollars. The US dollar is hovering between us $0.88-0.87 against the Australian dollar, but the relative change is not big. The US dollar maintained a level of US $0.78 against the New Zealand dollar, with a performance of US $0.7916 over the period.

The performance of the foreign exchange market highlights the expansion of the US dollar in a week, but it is still a phase and temporary adjustment. The stimulus to the environment and economic factors is strong. It is not the guidance of US dollar policy indicators. The strategy of depreciation of the US dollar will therefore play a better role. The foreshadowing of appreciation is the foundation of depreciation.

1, the expected expectation of the Federal Reserve policy to stabilize US dollar indicators. The most important concern this week is the seventh regular meeting of the Fed this year. The final result is in line with market expectations. The Federal Reserve has pulled out of the debt purchase plan, ending two years of short selling and long selling distortions. After the two day monetary policy ended, the Fed announced a 15 billion dollar cut in its final purchases and ended QE3 in November. In particular, the Federal Reserve believes that the US economy has achieved the main goal of reducing unemployment. This expectation for the future is the rise in US interest rates, and the timing of interest rate increase is the key. However, the actual Fed policy has shifted to austerity, and the scale and structural adjustment has taken place. The definition of policy is not loose. The basis for public opinion judgment needs to be rigorous and thorough. The Fed announced the end of the monthly debt purchase plan, suggesting that confidence in the recovery of the US economy has intensified in the global slowdown in many countries, and the global imbalance recovery has further widened. The Fed believes that the overall economy of the United States has sufficient potential energy to support the economy to achieve maximum employment under the premise of maintaining price stability. Although the Fed has no certainty about the timing of raising interest rates, the Fed's use of robust employment growth and other wording has raised doubts about raising interest rates in the market, especially the expansion of international gold prices, highlighting the outcome and power of the Fed's policy effect. The Fed's assessment of the US economy is relatively mild, indicating that the US economy is expanding at a moderate pace, and the labour market situation has further improved with the increase of employment and the reduction of unemployment rate. In general, a series of indicators in the labour market indicate that the labor resources that are not fully utilized are decreasing and household expenditure is increasing moderately. Although the recovery of the real estate market is still slow, the investment in fixed assets is increasing. In September, there were 284 thousand new jobs in the US non-agricultural sector, and the US unemployment rate dropped to 5.9%, the lowest level since July 2008.

This week, the US dollar fell earlier. The main reason is that the data of us durable goods orders at the beginning of the week are not ideal. The growth of negative numbers, together with the housing price data, disappointed investors, triggering worries about the state of the US economy. In addition, the Swedish central bank adopted a zero interest rate policy this week, the main thrust of which is to fight domestic deflation, which surprised investors. The Swedish kronor fell to a 4 year low against the US dollar, and the US dollar index fell 0.1% at 85.39, the lowest since 4. In the end, the strong dollar on the weekend was related to market data and policy expectations. The Fed's statement was relatively optimistic, with a clearer position and a downplay of the risks of the economy. exchange rate The support is more obvious.

2, Japan Easing policy Follow up stimulates and anticipates obviously. This weekend, the Japanese central bank further loosened its monetary policy and shocked the financial market. In addition to the BoJ's decision to expand its already large stimulus monetary policy, the Japanese government's pension fund announced that it would increase its holdings of overseas and domestic stocks, which exacerbated the yen's selling pressure. Then the yen fell to its lowest level against the dollar in the past 7 years and showed the worst performance in 18 months. The stimulus of Japan's extraordinary monetary policy is that Japan's policy goal is to reverse deflation over the past 10 years and the fact that economic growth is below average. Although market investors originally expected the Bank of Japan to relax some policies, most investors did not think it would move so quickly. The market is expected to have real Countermeasures in the coming months. In particular, Japan's economic data, though not ideal, appear rather weak. Bank of Japan President Kuroda Higashihiko expressed optimism about Japan's economic prospects. But in fact, Japan's relaxed and sudden force was based on economic needs, and then the dollar rose to 3% against the yen, and the yen quickly and sharply dropped to 112.47 yen, the lowest level since December 31, 2007, resulting in a 3.77% rise in the US dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate this week.

3, the price of resources metal fell sharply, exacerbating market policy panic. With the effect and influence of the above two major monetary policies, the international resources price is more important. The oil price continues to fall, the international gold price falls obviously, and the situation falls below 1200 US dollars, which leads to market pessimism and anticipation further pessimism. At present, the pessimistic aspect of the whole financial market is expanding, and the anticipation of speculation is obvious. However, the actual market situation is not the aggravation of speculative factors. On the contrary, the author's observation is that along with the rise of stock prices in major developed countries, the return of investment value trend is emerging, and speculative speculation will actually decrease or decrease. The recovery of the real economy in developed countries is the process of upgrading and upgrading, which will inevitably lead to the adjustment of qualitative changes in the financial market. The change of this trend makes developing countries face an awkward and passive situation. The lack of quality technology and experience will highlight the rising risk pressure. The judgment and anticipation of international foreign exchange market are more complicated.