Li Zhilin: Big Volume Is Going To Make A Big Turn. How Do We Get There After 2400?

Until last weekend and Monday's 2302 and 2290 points, the vast majority of investors also believe that in October, the month of yin and 2391 points will be the highest point in the adult market, the trend of falling prices opened.

However, since Tuesday, the market has been soaring for 4 consecutive days, not only recovering 2391 points on Thursday, but also on Friday, the largest volume in 5 years has been 250 billion, which has closed at 2420 points, and has received 5.12% weekly Changyang and 2.7% monthly line.

This week's quotations are described in terms of "turning back and forth, soaring, fire, fire, and battalion (win), innovation and high spirits".

1, enjoy the joy of "China time" in the stock market.

Since the end of July, I have published the article on the opening of "China time" in the stock market.

After 3 months of 4 wave rally, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 18.1% (2049-2420), the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 13.3% (7258-8225), and the small and medium sized board rose 23.4% (6444-7953).

Up 16% (1305-1513).

It can be said that investors of all styles have initially enjoyed the joy of "China time" in the stock market.

The basis of "China time" is: the "new normal" of the economy, the direction of monetary policy easing, the main keynote of the reform and pformation, the promotion fees of the government in the six fields, the development and going out of the high-speed rail, the great potential of new urbanization, the risk free rate of return, the proportion of direct financing, the local government debt crisis, the reform of state assets and the reform of mixed ownership.

All of these provide strong impetus for the continuation of the "Chinese stock market".

Since 2013, China's stock market has been strong and weak.

Gem rose from 585 to 1571 points, or 168%, while the small and medium sized board rose 100.3% from 4013-8039 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 24% from 1949-2420 points.

Until June this year, the Shanghai composite index was still negative for 13 years, and for 6 consecutive years it was the world's largest bear.

From the imbalance of trading volume, the Shanghai stock market with a circulation market value greater than 1 times of the Shenzhen stock market has a daily average turnover of 300-500 billion than that of Shenzhen stock market.

However, since the beginning of this week, both gains and turnover have been reversed as "Shanghai strong and deep weak".

The reasons are:

First, the market expects that Shanghai and Hong Kong will open as soon as possible.

After the Shanghai and Hong Kong Exchanges, new Hongkong's foreign capital mainly buys shares in Shanghai stock market, which will have chain effect.

The two reason is the overall surge of local stocks in Shanghai this week.

On the one hand, prism shares are listed on the backdoor market by modern design, and the three limit is trading.

At the same time, the 7 yuan low priced shares, which are backdoor listed on the port Park, will soon resume trading, and the Oriental Pearl is also approaching the resumption of licensing. Shanghai's mixed ownership reform will have substantive actions.

In view of the fact that Shanghai's local stock market has always been characterized by "one damage, one loss and one glory", it has greatly stimulated people's enthusiasm for Shanghai's reform of state-owned assets.

On the other hand, by the end of 2015, Disneyland will open in Shanghai. It is expected to attract more than 20 million of Chinese and foreign tourists to Shanghai every year, bringing great business opportunities to Shanghai's economy and Shanghai's local stock.

Of course, what is more important is that Shanghai's local stocks have been in a low position and low price for a long time, and their performance is good, and the reform is expected to be strong.

The three reason is that the rule of "low water flow" in the capital market is playing a role.

Over the past two years, small and medium sized boards and gem have increased significantly, and stock prices have risen several times.

Today, when Shanghai's local stocks, central enterprises and local state-owned stocks and cyclical low price stocks are in a low position, the deep water (funds) will naturally flow from the high level to the low level of Shanghai stock market.

As the market suddenly changed from a long, deep and strong Shanghai weakness to Shanghai strong and deep weak, just like last year's 8 to September Shanghai free trade zone concept stock market broke out, the small and medium-sized board and the gem have lost their direction for a while, many stocks even appeared diving, many investors earned the Shanghai Composite Index, but they lost money, and a little not suited to it.

However, judging from the overall situation, the Shanghai stock index is going up to the top, ending the bear market and entering the bull market, which will eventually benefit the Shenzhen stock market and make the small cap stocks more effective.

I don't think the Shanghai strong and weak will exist for a long time, and the seesaw effect will gradually weaken.

After the Shanghai stock price has been restored to a certain extent, the two cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen will have balanced development.

The gem and small and medium sized board which belong to the state level strategic support and have high growth and high capital expansion ability will eventually reappear brilliantly.

The concept of military investment injection is a long term market and will be two degrees after adjustment.

With its substantial reform of state assets and the reform of mixed ownership, its external growth can surpass "deep strong Shanghai weak" or "Shanghai strong and deep weak".

3, how do we go after 2400?

As the residence time over 2300 is too long, and there are lots of accumulated profits, the main task in the future is to consolidate, digest profit making, and eliminate the fear of heights in the market.

There is a greater probability of repeated shocks, slow rising and rising stocks.

First of all, we must see whether we can repeatedly close the 2430 points, fully change hands and wait for the five week average (up to 2358 points) to decide whether we can continue to expand.

When 2430 points are closed repeatedly, when the time is ripe, we will conquer 2444 and 2478.

This process may be a bit long and volume is the key.