Textile And Garment Industry: Entering The Three Quarterly Disclosure Period, The Number Of Pre Performance / Loss Companies Is More Than Half.

Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.4%, while the textile and garment sector fell by 1.6%, of which the textile sector fell 1.59% and the clothing sector rose 1.6%.

The leading companies in the sector are ST, A, TEK, ST, ST, and ST respectively. The gains are 33.05%, 24.75%, 16.91%, 16.55% and 8.9% respectively.

From the beginning of 17 to October, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 10.64%, and the textile and garment sector rose 27.64%, of which the textile sector rose 30.77% and the clothing sector rose 24.55%.

Industry data and major company tracking.

1) 50 retail data: 1-9 months, apparel retail sales grew 1.5% year on year, 4.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, of which 9 retail sales grew slightly 0.1% over the same period last year, a 5.7 percentage point lower than that of the same period last year. 2) online shopping data: the data of the 5000 heavy retail enterprises monitored by the Ministry of Commerce showed that 1~9 shopping online grew by 32.2% over the same period last year, with the growth rate of 32.2%% in September, which was faster than that in August.

An increase of 7.4%.

In the first three quarters, the total export volume of textiles and clothing increased by 5.9%, of which 5% of textile exports increased and 6.5% of clothing exports increased; 4) raw material data: last week, the average price of 328 cotton price index in China last week was 14843 yuan / ton, and the average price of Zhou Chengjiao dropped 1.81%.

The external cotton Cotlook:A index fell 0.62% last week, and has fallen by 21.06% since the beginning of this year.

The difference between inside and outside cotton price is: the result of our calculation shows that the difference between inside and outside cotton price is 2148 yuan yuan / ton, and the difference between inside and outside cotton price is obviously reduced, which is roughly stable at 2000 yuan yuan / ton.

5) Roley home textile three quarterly report: revenue increased by 9.1%, net profit increased by 16.7%; 6) Rebecca three quarterly report: revenue decreased by 8.9%, net profit decreased by 9.1%.

Industry policy trends and announcements of listed companies.

1) the United States has made efforts to sell children's clothing market, the goal is to enter the first sales group in five years; 2) Anta signed NBA, three year target China basketball market first; 3) this year's cotton area is expected to be 6340 million mu, down 9.35% from the same period last year; 4) Tai Yuan shares 2 billion 800 million bought the global star 95% stake, pformation international clothing business; 5) red collar group in the first half of the year to achieve more than last year's growth of the above, become a dark horse industry.

This week's point of view: in the three quarterly disclosure period, more than half of the pre performance / loss companies were reported. According to our statistics released 37 quarter textile and apparel companies, 18 of the company's performance has been reduced by 18, or more than half of the total.

Manufacturing: we grasp the investment opportunities from two aspects of "textile main industry" and "non textile main industry". First, under the influence of Xinjiang cotton direct subsidy pilot, the difference of cotton price between inside and outside is obviously reduced. At present, it is stabilized at about 2000 yuan / ton, while cotton price is falling, cotton textile leading enterprises hope to achieve restorative growth by means of production technology, supply chain and channel management, environmental protection technology, order demand and capital.

Two, we should pay attention to those enterprises whose textile industry is under greater pressure and even losses.

Brand clothing: brand clothing enterprises begin to reflect more on the traditional management mode of the horse race enclosure, hoping to carry out the pformation and pformation of fine operation and self return.

The future test of brand clothing companies is more of the "internal strength" level of practice.

From the perspective of investment, we choose to focus on Brand Company's investment opportunities from the aspects of supply chain reform, channel pformation, product pformation, brand building and capital operation.

Key recommendations: 1) quality brand clothing company, Hai Lan home, Semir costumes and Pathfinder, etc.; 2) Roley's home textile and fuanna, etc., whose performance has been improved by subdividing the fundamentals of the panel's fundamentals, and 3) have been actively looking for the expected Lanci shares, Jia Linjie, cashmere and Roley home textiles.

Risk warning.

Domestic terminal consumption is low, the risk of clothing consumption reduction is reduced, and the fluctuation of external demand affects the risk of export.