ICAC10 Monthly Report: China'S Cotton Imports Will Decline Sharply.

The Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) reported in its October report that international cotton prices dropped to around 80 cents / pound at the end of 2013/14, and continued to decline in the first two months of 2014/15.

Although cotton consumption is expected to rise, the international cotton price will be difficult to rise with the gap of nearly 1 million 800 thousand tons of output and the adjustment of China's policies.

In 2014/15, the global cotton planting area is estimated at 507 million mu, up 3% over the same period last year. The main reason is that the international cotton price is higher than that of competitive crops.

Global cotton production is expected to grow 1% to 26 million 200 thousand tons over the same period, with an average yield of 51.7 kg / mu.

Because of the uncertainty of China's policies and the "target price" policy, it has not benefited the mainland, and China's cotton acreage will be reduced by 8% to 63 million mu.

However, the increase in Xinjiang's planting area and the increase in output will make China's cotton output reach 6 million 400 thousand tons.

The delay in India's monsoon rains has resulted in an increase of 5% in cotton planting area and a decrease of 6% to 35.7 kg / mu, which is close to three years' average level.

It is expected to reach 6 million 600 thousand tons and become the largest cotton producer in the world.

The cotton harvest area in the United States is estimated at 58 million 500 thousand mu, and its output is expected to reach 3 million 700 thousand tons, up 30% over the same period last year.

Recently, despite the impact of floods, Pakistan has little impact on cotton production, and its planting area is expected to be 42 million mu, a decrease of 4% over the same period, but the output will reach 2 million 100 thousand tons, an increase of 1% compared with the same period last year, and the unit yield will increase by 5% to 50 kg / mu.

With the fall of international cotton prices, global cotton consumption will increase by 4% to 24 million 400 thousand tons.

China's consumption will significantly recover, expected to reach 7 million 900 thousand tons, an increase of 5% over the same period, but still below the average of 10 million tons in 2005-2010.

India's consumption will also increase by 5% to 5 million 300 thousand tons.

Consumption in Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia will increase to 950 thousand tons, 700 thousand tons and 690 thousand tons respectively.

Because

It is announced that the quota of imported cotton will no longer be issued in 2015, which will mainly consume state cotton. Therefore, China's cotton imports will shrink substantially in the 2014/15 year, which is expected to be only 2 million tons, down 36% compared to the same period last year, which directly led to the decline in global cotton imports from 11% to 8 million tons.

Imports from Southeast Asia will grow by 2% to 6 million tons.