The Peak Season Is Not Booming Textile Market Has Reached A New Low In Three Years.

In the 09 months of 2014, there were 3 kinds of commodities rising and falling in the list of commodity prices. The top 3 commodities were acrylic (1.27%), viscose staple (0.66%) and acrylonitrile (0.10%).

Decreasing in number

A total of 16 species, with a total decline of more than 5%, accounted for 5, accounting for 23.8% of the total number of commodities monitored. The top 3 products were lint (3 mainland) (-9.69%), PTA (Hua Dong) (-7.93%) and polyester FDY (-7.74%).

In September 2014, the bulk of the textile industry increased by -2.57%.

The so-called "golden nine silver ten" has not been well reflected in the textile industry. According to the textile index of business associations, the textile index in September 29th ended at 918 points, a record low of three years.

From August, the price list of textile bulk products can also be characterized by two characteristics: first, the number of ups and downs is increasing; only 3 of the 21 textile raw materials tracked are rising, namely acrylic (1.27%), viscose staple (0.66%) and acrylonitrile (0.10%).

There were 15 commodities with a decrease of -2.57%.

Two, the decline is widening.

Compared with the price list of textile bulk products in August, the number of commodities falling by more than 5% was 0, but in September, there were 5 commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 23.8% of the number of commodities monitored by the plate.

They are lint cotton (grade 3 inland) (-9.69%), PTA (Hua Dong) (-7.93%) and polyester FDY (-7.74%) respectively.

Cotton textile market continued to decline this month. On the 17 day, Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy implementation plan was released. Zheng cotton futures market immediately responded, breaking through the previous low point support, and plunged two days in a row, and finally closed down 13110 yuan / ton at the limit price.

Cotton spot market prices also dropped significantly, just more than 10 days, or nearly 10% decline.

Downstream cotton yarn prices continue to decline, although now in the "Kim Gu" season, but the downstream fabric manufacturers maintain high inventory, purchase cotton yarn carefully, cotton yarn sales therefore blocked.

Cotton prices continue to be on the spot for cotton prices. At present, textile companies are more afraid to buy Cotton in large quantities, and cotton stocks generally only maintain 10-15 days.

Raw material support weakened, chemical fiber market was hurt.

This month, most of the chemical fiber products market is weakening, especially the whole industry chain led by PTA, the most obvious decline.

Analysis of the reasons, mainly raw material market weakness, according to the business association PTA industry chain price comparison chart can be seen, this month PX market fell more than 7.85%.

Because the PTA contract adopts the cost pricing mode, the correlation between PTA and PX is strengthened, and the PTA market to a large extent depends on the trend of PX.

Recently, the crude oil market is weakening obviously. At the same time, the new PX production capacity in Asia has increased to 5 million 670 thousand tons / year since the beginning of 2014. The supply of PX has been increasing, resulting in a fall in the price of the PTA, followed by the increase in the rate of PTA operation to over 63%, and the increase in factory losses.

And like spandex, nylon, viscose and other chemical fiber products, the industry chain is also facing weak demand, supply and demand can not be balanced.

In August, exports of textiles and clothing were US $25 billion 451 million, down 2.51% from July, up 26.4% over the same period last year.

Among them, exports of textiles amounted to 8 billion 363 million US dollars, a decrease of 3.90% compared to the same period, and exports of garments and accessories were 17 billion 88 million US dollars, down by 1.19%.

However, the retail sales of clothing decreased by 3.9% over the same period last year, down 4.7 percentage points from July, down 15.5 percentage points from the same period last year.

In fact, under the premise of fluctuating labor costs and raw material prices, the entire textile industry is not optimistic.

China's commodity supply and demand index (BCI), released in September by -0.44, rose by -1.97%, reflecting the contraction of the manufacturing economy in the month and the risk of economic downside.

Analyst Xia Ting thinks the textile market is more likely to continue to weaken.

First, high inventory, high production, labor costs, tight funds and other issues have long plagued downstream textile enterprises, weak demand is still the main factor restricting prices.

Two, the cost of raw materials has been weakened.

The cotton price will be returned to market after Xinjiang cotton direct subsidy rules fall, and the price difference between domestic and foreign countries will shrink, so the main trend will continue to fall. Cotton prices will fluctuate at 14000 yuan / ton in 10-11 months, and cotton yarn will decrease by 500-800 yuan / ton.

For the chemical fiber market, the supply pressure of raw materials PX will continue to increase, and the latter will still be in the weak position.

Based on the above analysis, it is expected that the textile market will still be on the decline in October, but considering the traditional demand peak season or postponed to October, the decline will slow down compared with September, with a minimum around 900.