Xinjiang Cotton Prices Are Gradually Stabilizing, And The Market Is Expected To Improve After The National Day

According to the report, on October 1, the weather in most areas of Xinjiang was fine, and cotton began to boll, some of which reached 70%. Ginning plants were successively opened for purchase, and the local government strengthened the publicity and implementation of target prices, so that the market developed in a good direction.

In Aksu's cotton trade, Mr. Zhang said that at present Aksu's cotton area is "a sea of silver", and flower pickers from other places work overtime for 17-18 hours a day to pick new cotton, pushing the picking work to a climax. Talking about this year's output, he said: "Xinjiang is the focus of national cotton, and Aksu is the focus of Xinjiang cotton. Aksu's per unit area yield this year is mostly 430-450 kg/mu, and some cotton fields can reach more than 500 kg/mu. The percentage of newly picked cotton is mostly 42%, some can reach 43% - 44%, and the moisture content is 13-15%. After 1-2" days ", the moisture content can drop to 9-11%."

It is also understood that the cotton of the Corps will also have a bumper harvest this year, and the quality is expected to be slightly higher than that of last year. Most of the cotton in the Corps is machine picked. The picking work will not start until more than 90% of the bolls are opened, and it will start after the National Day. At present, the cost of machine picking seed cotton is 0.7-0.8 yuan/kg, while the cost of manual picking is 2.4-2.6 yuan/kg. Therefore, compared with local cotton, the cost of XPCC cotton is lower, and the cotton market price is also advantageous.

With the coming of the 11th National Day, the traditional Muslim festival, the Eid al Adha, is approaching, and Xinjiang is in a festive atmosphere. some Cotton farmer Large farmers and cotton growers need to pay wages and purchase goods for flower pickers. In addition, the progress of seed cotton marketing is accelerating, so they need to sell some seed cotton to "realize". It is expected that from October 1-7, the purchase and sale of seed cotton in Xinjiang is expected to set off a small climax. On the 1st, the price of seed cotton in Aksu region of southern Xinjiang was 6.0-6.4 yuan/kg (41% lint percentage, 11% moisture content), 5.9-6.2 yuan/kg in Kashi, Bachu and other places, and 5.5-6.0 yuan/kg in some places. The overall level has not changed much since September 30. The price of seed cotton in Shihezi, northern Xinjiang is 5.6-6.2 yuan/kg (40% lint and 13% moisture), which is the same as that on September 30.

As of October 1, traders in Shihezi and Wusu regions in northern Xinjiang had quoted 1.60-1.65 yuan/kg of cottonseed, with 8-14% moisture content. The price varies according to the quality. The factory price in Aksu, Kashgar and other places in southern Xinjiang is 1.72-1.80 yuan/kg. According to the market, since the middle of September, the price of cottonseed in Xinjiang has dropped by 0.10-0.15 yuan/kg. At present, new cottonseeds are listed sporadically, and the quotation of ginning plants continues to decline. The oil factory will wait and see the market. It is planned to purchase cottonseed and press it at the beginning of October.

　　 the near future Ginning mills are in a dilemma. According to the boss of a ginning factory in Awati County, Aksu Prefecture, since late September, the number of cotton merchants and textile enterprises in the mainland of China who purchase cotton in advance has suddenly decreased a lot, and the purchase price of individual users has also been kept very low, making many ginning factories afraid to start work easily. As of October 1, the cost of lint processed by their factory was 14000-14200 yuan/ton, but the current sales price is basically at this level, and the enterprise can hardly make money. Ginning mills have two concerns: first, they are worried about a sharp drop in cotton prices. At present, there are rumors in Xinjiang market that the cotton price may fall to 12000-13000 yuan/ton by November, which puts great psychological pressure on ginning plants. Second, it is worried that a large amount of seed cotton will flow out, and enterprises will "go without rice". Therefore, some counties and cities began to set up cards on major roads and national roads to reduce cross regional and cross county sales.

According to market analysis, the middle and late September is the policy digestion period and the implementation period of relevant details, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. After the National Day, the weighing rate of Xinjiang will gradually increase, and the cotton price will also achieve the convergence of old and new cotton with the announcement of the textile enterprise's purchase plan and the increase of new cotton's market volume. As the raw material inventory of cotton spinning enterprises is at a low level, the phenomenon of proper replenishment will increase. At the same time, Xinjiang cotton needs warehousing inspection, and the time of leaving Xinjiang will be delayed. Therefore, the domestic cotton price may not fall below 14000 yuan/ton (standard level) in October, and the market is relatively bearish after November.

　　“ Cotton farmer We are still waiting to see. It is estimated that the large-scale sale will not take place until the middle of October. " A Shandong cotton farmer in Shihezi said that recently, ginning plants were not enthusiastic about purchasing and kept prices low. A few ginning plants in remote areas did not set prices for cotton and did not prepay for goods; Most cotton farmers do not know who to hand over cotton to get the subsidy. They are afraid that the enterprise will not get the subsidy if it sells the wrong cotton; Cotton enterprises are worried about the "low price" of cotton. Recently, government departments in some regions have increased the publicity and implementation of the Implementation Plan of Xinjiang Cotton Target Price Reform Pilot Work to guide farmers on how to sell cotton, who to sell it to, and how to obtain cotton area and direct subsidy for output. It is expected that most cotton farmers will understand these issues in the middle and late October.