China'S Export Advantage Is Hard To Overcome, And China'S Imports Of US Cotton Will Continue To Decline.

US cotton has signed a total of 38 thousand and 700 tons of cotton export and shipped 20 thousand and 800 tons, of which China signed 11 thousand and 700 tons and shipped 3 thousand and 800 tons. However, the Chinese government stated that in 2015 it would no longer issue additional quotas outside the quota of 894 thousand tonnes, which would result in a sharp decline in demand for imported cotton from the world's largest importers and consumer countries. The sales pressure brought about by the increase in cotton production in the United States was difficult to digest. Overnight cotton in the ICE period continued to decline, and the main contract fell 0.17 cents to 61.4 cents / pound in December.

At present, China's policy is basically determined in the United States and India. New cotton After the listing, the supply pressure will be further reflected. The international cotton prices will continue to fall. Therefore, we should not change the idea of keeping ICE short cotton, and pay attention to the pressure level of 62 cents / pound.

Technically, Thursday Phase ICE Cotton continued to fall, the main contract closed in December, the cotton price was far from the short-term average line suppression, the EMA system kept a short fall in alignment, KD and MACD index continued to fall short, MACD index green column growth, cotton prices maintained a downward trend, December contract will challenge 60 cents / pound integer threshold support, if the support is lost, the target will reach 55 cents / pound line.

　　 Chinese government The statement will control the issuance of import quotas and reduce the import of cotton resources in 2015. Meanwhile, the government hopes that cotton prices will remain stable and will strengthen the supervision of the futures market. The policy factors will make Zheng cotton rebound, but the global supply will be relaxed. It is advisable to treat the rebound cautiously. We should pay close attention to the 1501 contract 13500 yuan / tonne pressure level, and continue to increase our holdings against the pressure level.

Related links:

China said on Monday that it would reduce the volume of cotton imports to 894 thousand tons (4 million 100 thousand packs) next year, which is the minimum tariff import quota promised to join WTO [micro-blog].

The US government predicted that China's imports of 2014/15 crop will be 8 million packs per year, and that the planned import volume of China will be almost half of the estimated value of the US government. The 2014/15 crop year began in August 1st. Affected by this news, the US ICE cotton prices fell.

China is still likely to announce new measures to boost overall imports. But market participants say the plan will undermine China's interest in foreign cotton and encourage domestic cotton producers to use domestic cotton.

Risk Analytics consultant Louis Rose, independent cotton trader and consulting agency, said cotton CTH4 in March could fall to 50 cents. The contract was awarded 62.48 cents per pound on Tuesday.

Over the past three years, the stock of China's reserve cotton has been enough to supply domestic textile mills for two years.

Cotton prices have fallen by 25% since May because of concerns over China's new policy, which has fallen below the profit and loss balance for most US households.

Since 1975, Jerome Vick, a farmer who grew cotton in North Carolina, says he may not grow cotton next year, the first time he has stopped planting for nearly more than 20 years.

When farmers start marketing two years' largest cotton production in the United States, prices may rise slightly.

But cotton prices are hard to predict. Before May, cotton prices had never been below 78 cents since January 2013, and even 96 cents in March.

Vick said that although good weather and yield could offset some price declines, the cost of planting cotton was 70-75 cents per pound. His sweet potato and sweet potato prices are better.