Dye Market: Good Left Hand And Bad Right Hand

The future trend of China's dye market is closely related to the current economic situation at home and abroad. To a certain extent, the situation determines the future.

Judging from the international economic situation, there is little room for demand growth in the international market, especially in the United States. The other two major economic entities, Europe and Japan, have still not been able to get out of the shadow of recession. The demand of the international market is bound to be affected. Although exports have improved, we should not have too high expectations for exports, but focus on domestic demand.

Therefore, in the fourth quarter, under the influence of domestic and international economic situation and various factors, some major changes will occur in China's dye industry and market. In the fourth quarter, there was still room for demand in the dye market, but it was unrealistic to see a substantial growth. Because the demand for dyes mainly depends on the demand situation of downstream industries such as textile, printing and dyeing, real estate, home textile, automobile and industrial cloth.

　　 Good:

Stable development of direct downstream printing and dyeing industry of dyes

Stable growth of industrial use brings new demand to the dye industry

Printing and dyeing industry is the direct user and market of dyes. As a direct downstream industry of the dye industry, the development of the dye industry depends on the quality of the printing and dyeing industry. From January to June 2014, printing and dyeing enterprises above designated size produced 29.403 billion meters of printed and dyed fabrics, a year-on-year decrease of 0.73%. On the whole, the overall situation of the printing and dyeing industry is relatively stable, without big ups and downs. The continuous and stable increase in the output and consumption of printed and dyed fabrics in China will directly drive the market demand for dye products to maintain growth. This situation is also extremely beneficial to the development of the dye industry. Among them, a group of data that can best illustrate the problem is that from January to June 2014, the actual completed investment in fixed assets of printing and dyeing enterprises with more than 5 million yuan projects was 17.933 billion yuan, an increase of 36.00% year-on-year, 19.94 percentage points higher than that of the entire textile industry; 501 construction projects, an increase of 21.60% year on year; 342 new projects were started, with a year-on-year increase of 22.58%; 164 projects were completed, an increase of 74.47% year on year. Among them, the actual completed investment, number of construction projects and number of new projects of cotton printing and dyeing finishing enterprises grew faster than those of chemical fiber textile printing and dyeing finishing enterprises, with year-on-year growth of 41.56%, 30.04% and 37.50% respectively. Once these projects are completed and put into operation, new space will be opened for future dye demand. There are also new changes in exports. From January to June 2014, the total import and export volume of eight categories of printing and dyeing products was US $12.781 billion, an increase of 8.46% year on year, with the growth rate falling 1.98 percentage points from the same period last year and 1.99 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter of this year. Among them, exports to emerging markets are in good condition. For example, the export to ASEAN and India maintained a double-digit growth rate. The export volume increased by 24.62% and 39.37% respectively, and the export amount increased by 25.47% and 41.41% respectively. Undoubtedly, the expansion of the export of eight categories of printing and dyeing products has made a great contribution to the dye industry, and has enhanced the pulling effect on the development of China's dye industry.

Then look at downstream industries such as automobile decoration, home textile and industrial cloth. In the first half of 2014, China's automobile production and sales again exceeded 10 million, namely 11.7834 million and 11.6835 million. In the first half of 2014, affected by the continuous and steady growth of China's automobile industry, the demand for automobile decoration market increased, and the trend of automobile cloth in the fourth quarter will continue. With the increasing number of domestic cars, there is a great demand for China's automobile cloth market, and the development prospect is still good.

In the first three quarters, the home textile industry ran steadily on the whole. From the relevant statistical data, it is expected that the home textile industry will continue to maintain stable growth this year. In particular, the accelerated pace of structural adjustment in the home textile industry has brought good opportunities to the dye market. There are also industrial fabrics such as luggage fabrics. With the improvement of people's living standards, the number of tourists is increasing, which not only drives the development of tourism but also drives the sales of luggage. In September, the sales of luggage fabrics will enter a good situation. The colors welcomed by merchants are: bright red, baolan, navy blue, black, etc. The luggage fabric market will be very optimistic in the fourth quarter of this year. There are also decorative fabrics, from packaging cloth to jacquard curtain cloth, the demand for more. Of course, there are also advertising fabrics that are popular at the moment. With the development of domestic exhibitions and advertising industry, the demand for flags has become a major consumption highlight in today's society. A number of high-quality and beautiful "flag" special fabrics have been listed on the market, which not only have bright luster, but also have strong color fastness, especially when making national flags. It has won the favor of relevant manufacturers and the sales trend is in the ascendant. Therefore, in the fourth quarter, driven by the downstream industry, it is bound to increase the demand for dyes in the market. In this way, China's dye industry and market will maintain the overall momentum of development. Of course, the rising demand will support the steady rise of dye prices. The market demand of downstream industries such as automobiles and home textiles drives the growth of the dye industry. In particular, automobile dyes benefit from the development of the automobile industry, and their demand will increase and the price will rise. It can be predicted that China's dye industry will maintain an annual double-digit growth rate in 2014.

　 Bad:

The decline of real estate has an impact on the decoration and curtain cloth

The impact of environmental protection on leather and light industry will affect the dye industry

However, we should also see the negative impact of the current decline of real estate on the decoration and curtain cloth industry and market development, which may affect the dye industry.

The decline of real estate in the first three quarters of 2014 has emerged. From the published data, it is an indisputable fact that the overall overall downward trend continues (whether compared to the same period of 2013 or the first quarter of 2014). Undoubtedly, the overall downward trend is a negative for the dye industry and the market.

At the end of June, the area of commercial housing for sale nationwide increased by 24.5% year on year. The decline of real estate and real estate development investment and the continuous decline of commercial housing sales area and sales amount indicate that developers and buyers are not optimistic about the future of real estate development, which will lead to a downturn in the real estate market. The land market will be further indifferent, which will directly threaten the local land sales revenue. Seriously, by the end of June this year, the area of commercial housing for sale in China had increased by 24.5% year on year. This indicates that the inventory of commercial housing nationwide has been in normal state. What does the soaring inventory of commercial housing show? It not only shows that the market demand for commercial housing is seriously low, but also shows that the excessive development of commercial housing under the temptation of high housing prices has become a serious surplus. At present, the housing price inflection point has begun to appear and formed, and the market's expectation of a further decline in housing prices has been established. The real estate market is likely to continue its downward trend for a considerable period of time. It is expected that this will have a certain tightening effect on the growth of the market capacity of decorative, curtain and other industrial textiles, and will also have a negative impact on the dye market.

Finally, look at environmental protection, leather, light industrial products and other fields. The environmental protection inspection since last July has had a great impact on the whole chemical sector. In particular, the wastewater from the dye industry is colored and difficult to remove. The pressure of environmental protection has led to the increase of pollutant discharge indicators, and the output of the whole industry has decreased. Supply contraction caused by environmental protection. At present, there are about 600 kinds of dyes produced in China, which can meet more than 90% of the domestic market demand. Among all kinds of dyes, disperse dyes, reactive dyes and sulfur dyes rank first in terms of production, accounting for 46%, 32% and 11% of the total output respectively. In the second half of 2013, the price of domestic dyes soared, including the average price of disperse dyes of 24000 yuan per ton and reactive dyes of nearly 30000 yuan. This is mainly because after years of environmental protection treatment, some dye enterprises with poor environmental protection treatment were closed, reducing market supply, leading to more market discourse power for domestic large enterprises. Some people say that the main reason for the sharp rise in the price of dyes is the increasingly stringent environmental protection inspection and crackdown. This year, environmental protection has become dyestuff An important driver of high prices. In 2014, the price of dyes soared and doubled several times in a few months. More and more strict environmental protection policies will lead to a still tight supply of dyes, and environmental protection will support the high price of dyes. In the fourth quarter, environmental protection was the main factor affecting the supply and demand of the dye industry. In the future, market demand will still increase and market supply will remain tight.

As China's economy has entered the new normal, the trend of stabilizing and recovering has been established. In 2014, China's GDP maintained a growth range of 7.5%, which has become the normal under the new normal. The domestic demand market is also expected to strengthen the growth momentum with the emergence of policy pre adjustment and fine adjustment effects such as targeted RRR reduction. The internal and external market environment faced by the textile industry is generally stable and improving. According to the current economic situation and industry development trend forecast, in 2014, especially in the fourth quarter, the overall stable development of China's textile printing and dyeing industry ensured the stable growth of dye market demand. There are still good opportunities for the development of dye industry. In terms of demand, dyes still have room for growth.