Textile "Golden Nine Silver Ten" Demand Peak Season Or Delay

According to the price monitoring of business community, 08 months in 2014

There are 6 kinds of textile products in the price rising list. The top 3 products are acrylonitrile (1.23%), acrylic (1.17%) and polyester FDY (1.14%).

There were 15 kinds of commodities with a decrease of PTA. The top 3 products were Hua Dong (-4.35%), dry cocoon (3A) (-2.77%) and polyester POY (-1.08%).

Domestic textile raw materials market continued to be weak in August, according to the business community.

The index shows that the textile index of 31 days is 959 points, down 1.34% from 972 in August 1st.

The highest point of the period was 1074 (2013-02-19), a decrease of 10.71%, which was 3.12% higher than that of the 07 lowest point on 2012 01 at 930.

(Note: cycle 2011-12-01 to date)

At the same time, from the August textile bulk price rise and fall list can also be seen two characteristics: one is, more and less fall, August, a total of 6 kinds of commodities rising around, a total of 15 kinds of commodities ring down, all rise and fall of -0.51%.

Two is the chemical fiber board of individual commodity prices slightly improved, acrylonitrile and acrylic fiber continued to rise in July, led the entire list, the monthly increase of 1.23% and 1.17% respectively.

Polyester FDY, polyester DTY and viscose staple fiber rebounded slightly this month, up 1.14%, 0.37% and 0.33% respectively.

Cotton prices are fresh and low, waiting for subsidies.

Domestic cotton spot market continued to decline in August, a record low of nearly three years. At present, the price of 3 grade real estate cotton in the market is about 17000 yuan / ton.

Affected by the temporary purchase and storage policy, the overall decline in the past three years was slow, which was only about 11% lower than that in the same period three years ago.

On the international side, the pressure of global cotton inventory is huge. The latest USDA global cotton supply and demand forecast report predicts that the end of August 26th cotton inventory will reach 23 million 9 thousand tons, an increase of 1 million 115 thousand tons compared to that of 2013/14. In August 26th, the state decided that the target price of cotton in Xinjiang will be 19800 yuan / ton this year, which marks the end of the cotton temporary storage and storage system that has been going on for many years.

The national cotton reserves will be put into operation at the end of August, and the cotton target price subsidy rules will be announced. New cotton will be listed in large quantities before and after October.

From the demand point of view, the demand for cotton yarn and cotton fabric in the lower reaches is weak, purchasing intention is not strong, and the price of cotton is restricted. The market is still dominated by weakness.

In the upcoming demand season, the chemical fiber factory has shown a strong desire to raise prices to change the current situation of losses.

With the change of raw material contract settlement mode, the loss of polyester factory has been increasing. At present, the loss of POY factory is 300-500 yuan / ton, which is a big loss level since this year.

In addition, some products due to the low rate of individual products are tight, and FDY and DTY factories have slightly increased their quotations this month.

The same viscose staple held a meeting on viscose industry in 19, and several large factories in China raised the price by 200 yuan / ton.

However, under the premise that the cost is weakening and the demand is not obviously improved, it is expected that the chemical fiber market will continue to bear pressure.

With the gradual warming of the European and American markets, textile exports have been warmer. The General Administration of Customs announced that in the first 7 months of this year, China's clothing exports were 610 billion 280 million yuan, an increase of 3.8%, and that of textiles was 389 billion 60 million yuan, an increase of 2.6%.

However, it still faces unfavorable factors such as the domestic market is not prosperous, the comprehensive cost is rising, and the difference between inside and outside cotton prices is bigger.

China's commodity supply and demand index (BCI) released by the business agency in August was -0.45, rising by -0.66%, reflecting a contraction in the manufacturing economy in the month and a downward risk in the economy.

To sum up, Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that the weak demand is still the main factor restricting the rise of the market. With the traditional peak season of "golden nine silver ten", demand will improve.

But from the current polyester plant load less than 68%, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load has only slightly increased to 67%, the two are lower than the same period last year, the device operating rate level, estimated that the peak season will be delayed or the peak season is not prosperous.

So it is expected that the textile market will continue to be weak in September and decline or slow down in late September.