Chen Jingquan: Geopolitical Risks Continue To Trend In The Short Term

Last Friday, the geopolitical problems that continued to affect the market had eased slightly. Under the impetus of this situation, gold and hedge assets had been sold on a large scale. Although the attack on the Russian convoys was not yet finished, the tension in the market has been greatly reduced compared with the previous ones. Meanwhile, the Ukraine government forces are close to completing the work of clearing up the anti armed forces. In terms of foreign currency market, commodity currencies have led the market, while European departments are still weak in terms of strength and lack of data. < /p >
< p > last week, < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > US < /a > data show that the new consumer index of Michigan in August hit a new low of 9 months, and we can find that the confidence of the recent market investors is generally down and the uncertainty of geopolitical risks is related. In addition, the current stock market is not stable, and the callback of this data is reasonable. If the recovery of the US economy is still strong, the continuous improvement of its demand and < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > employment market /a will promote the improvement of consumer confidence. The US PPI growth rate slowed down in July, and the reason for this slowing down is the sharp decline in energy market prices, and the US inflation data will become more realistic after excluding energy prices. < /p >
< p > market shows that Soros's increase in the short positions of the S & P 500 has increased by 16.65% from 2.96% in the first quarter. This shows that the market is becoming more and more worried about the US stocks. Although the US stocks are constantly developing new heights, the confidence of the market is weakening. This situation will not be far from the eventual collapse. The Fed also fully concerned about this situation. The Federal Reserve news agency said that compared to the market overheating, the a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > the Fed "/a" was more worried about premature interest rate hikes. In the past two economic cycles, premature interest rate hikes or opacity of interest rates have led to a sell-off risk in the market. This time, we must ensure that the market is running smoothly in different markets. Therefore, we should consider the market impact of the Fed's interest rate increase even if it is short-term fluctuations. < /p >
< p > from last week's market as a whole, there is no tension in the market at present. In addition to geopolitical risks, the major economies in the fall are particularly evident. After the two quarter's improvement, we once remained optimistic, but from now on, the possibility of another turning point in the three quarter is not low. Therefore, we still focus on risk prevention in trading. After all, the market will spread more or less risk factors in the short term. < /p >