How Does The Alibaba And The Baoxin Agreement Affect The Valuation?

< p > > a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Alibaba < /a > today announced the new prospectus and adjusted its relationship with the small and micro financial group (including Alipay). What kind of impact will this adjustment have on the IPO valuation of Alibaba group in September? < /p >
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< p > Yin Sheng believes that the most favorable adjustment is that the Alibaba group has the opportunity to gain equity in the small and micro financial group (before the listing or transfer of small and micro finance has an opportunity to get a 33% stake. If it is not available at the time of listing or transfer, it can get 37.5% of the stock rights, and the previous agreement did not get the terms of the stock rights). < /p >
< p > followed by 37.5% of the pre tax profit rights and interests of small and micro financial groups when they were listed or transferred. (before they obtained the pre tax profits of Alipay 49.9%), the worst was to get 37.5% of the equity realisation (not less than 9 billion 375 million dollars, not on the top), before the realizable amount was higher than 2 billion US dollars less than 6 billion US dollars. < /p >
At the same time, Alibaba group also reduced the risk related to financial assets by transferring small loan assets to the small and micro financial group. This provision and the provisions on share and profit sharing made the relationship between Alibaba group and small and micro financial group (including Alipay) more clear than before. This helped to eliminate the situation that Alibaba might have borne the corresponding financial risks but failed to get equivalent returns in the past P. < /p >
< p > next, Yin Sheng tries to analyze how the new agreement between Alibaba group and small micro finance group will affect the valuation of Alibaba group: < /p >
< p > first, I think that considering that Ma Yun is also the actual controller of Alibaba group and small micro finance group, his interests in the two companies may not be exactly the same. It is difficult to completely exclude the potential harm of Alibaba group shareholders' interests, and the implementation of the new agreement also depends on a series of future decisions related to management. Therefore, I think the income uncertainty of investment Alibaba group will still be significantly higher than that of other companies, such as Baidu, Amazon and so on, which may still at least drag the valuation level of Alibaba 20%. < /p >
< p > secondly, although this transaction provided the opportunity for Alibaba group to own small and micro financial group shares and permanent profits from small and micro finance, whether it could be achieved in the end is still subject to policy and partly to the choice of management. Therefore, I think the Alibaba group has a very high possibility of liquidation at the end. < /p >
< p > although the valuation of a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Alipay < /a > at present has been between 200~750 billion US dollars, but I think the value of liquidation of Alibaba group will probably be near the bottom line of the valuation of US $25 billion, that is, the realization value is near 9 billion 375 million US dollars. Considering that the transaction may adjust the figure according to the time, we can assume that this is the present value of the liquidation value obtained by Alibaba group finally from small micro finance, which is about 5 billion US dollars higher than the average price of 20~60 billion US dollars before. < /p >
< p > third is about the impact of small loan divestiture on the value of Alibaba group. According to the prospectus, in the first three quarters of last year, small and micro finance accounted for 2.9% of the total revenue, which accounted for about 230 million dollars in the whole year, and the transaction price was about $500 million. But relative to the Alibaba as a whole, the impact of this figure on valuation can hardly be taken into account. < /p >
< p > over the past few months, some situations have changed. For example, the market value of Baidu has risen by nearly 50% as its valuation reference, and Jingdong has also been listed, and its market value is close to US $40 billion. Therefore, Alibaba's valuation also needs to make some adjustments. < /p >
Referring to Baidu: since May, Baidu's share price has risen sharply, and its market value has risen to 15 times relative to last year's revenue, giving Alibaba a 12 times market yield relative to last year's income, with an estimated value of about 95 billion US dollars. P < /p >
< p > Google: 14 times the selling rate, 110 billion US dollars, plus about 5 billion dollars of other company shares. Considering that Alibaba has already invested a lot in foreign investment, the effect of these investments remains to be observed, and Alibaba's foreign investment may become more prudent after listing, so the potential option income of its cash before calculation is no longer considered. < /p >
< p > > a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Jingdong < /a >: the premise is to convert Jingdong's income into the income of Ali. Last year, Jingdong's income was $12 billion 500 million, assuming that the gross profit margin of 10% was converted to the income of the Alibaba mode (the income from the sales of the partner's products was not used as an example, and the gross profit of last year's gross profit was 1 billion 250 million US dollars), which was used as a 2013 income to convert the mode to the "mode". < /p >