Home >

Is The Bull Market Really Coming?

2014/8/11 10:12:00 25

??? 日本語 Fran?ais English 中文

the world is < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank".

> all the advantages and disadvantages of the superstructure will lead to a strong market structure and a solid foundation for the bull market. /p >

recently, under the stimulation of many factors such as the recovery of macroeconomic data, the acceleration of the reform of state owned assets, the launch of Shanghai and Hong Kong and the new round of expansion of QFII, the A stocks, which have long been in the bottom, have finally burst into vitality.

Since its rapid rise in July 22nd, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by more than 8%, and hit a new high in the year.

As a result, whether A shares have finally come to a bitter end and ushered in a new wave of bull market has become a topic of great concern to investors.

It is widely acknowledged that the "bull market" is still to be observed. "Bull market" is more precise and structured.

policy "fixed force" is still .

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs (P), exports increased by 14.1% over the same period last year, far exceeding the expectation of 7% in the market, which made obvious positive support for the stock market. However, there are various indications that China's economy is still recovering from the bottom up and there are still more uncertainties in the July.

from the economic data, in July, CPI rose by 2.3% and PPI decreased by 0.9%. In July, the final value of HSBC's manufacturing PMI was 51.7%. In July, the PMI of non manufacturing enterprises continued to fall 3 months to 54.2%. In July, HSBC China's service industry PMI dropped to a low level in the past 9 years, the index reached 53.1% in June, and then dropped to 50% in July.

These data indicate that China's economy is still uncertain.

from the policy keynote, management will be more relaxed in the second half of this year.

Management is well aware of the structural problems facing the Chinese economy, and hopes to avoid full relaxation or short-term stimulus so as to avoid triggering a new round of credit and investment climaxes.

Although the local government may continue to acquiesce in the local government's relaxation of the restriction policy, it is impossible to cancel the purchase restriction policy or reduce the two mortgage down payment in a short time.

Policy orientation will remain under the tone of "fine tuning", supplemented by "targeted" liquidity easing measures.

from the perspective of liquidity, the central bank [micro-blog] wants to maintain a reasonable rate of money supply, and on the other hand, it hopes to guide the downward trend of money market interest rates and help reduce the financing cost of the real economy.

According to the distribution of foreign exchange in May, the Central Bank purchased foreign exchange for only 361 million yuan, and the remaining 90% of foreign exchange was purchased by commercial banks.

This shows that the central bank has basically withdrawn from daily intervention in the foreign exchange market, and commercial banks are replacing short-term liquidity with long-term liquidity. This will bring about two major problems.

First, the period of mismatch between loans and deposits of commercial banks has increased; second, the liquidity demand of commercial banks has increased.

This is the core financial issue now facing.

in addition, the central bank launched a 20 billion yuan 14 day repo operation in the open market in August 7th.

At this point, last week, the central bank's open market operation achieved a net return of 20 billion yuan of funds, a continuous second week net return operation.

Market participants said that the central bank's two consecutive weeks of net return had a negative impact on market psychology, and in the middle of August, there will be new applications for short-term purchases.

The structural bull market is obviously less than /p.

recently, small and medium capitalization stocks, which were initially adjusted to be in place, began to reactivate after coal enterprises, banks, securities and steel undervalued a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > blue chips "/a".

It is noteworthy that the market has recently reappeared "drinking and taking medicine" market, and many institutions have been taking advantage of Shanghai and Hong Kong through the next opportunity to adjust positions, replacing the earlier growth stocks into low valuation and high dividend yield varieties.

with the continuous disclosure of Chinese Listed Companies in 2014, the layout path of QFII, brokerages, venture capital funds and social security institutions in the two quarter also showed signs.

數據統計顯示，截至8月8日，已經披露中報的395家公司中，21家公司的前十大流通股股東中出現了QFII的身影，德意志銀行和鉑金投資在二季度分別新進瀘州老窖(18.87, -0.03, -0.16%)923.79萬股和917.19萬股，兩家QFII合計持股最新市值超過3億元;有33家公司的前十大流通股股東中出現券商的身影，新進持有福耀玻璃(9.94, 0.09, 0.91%)、皖維高新(3.15, 0.02, 0.64%)、豫金剛石(6.100, 0.01, 0.16%)、蘇交科(9.090, 0.02, 0.22%)、小天鵝A(11.21, -0.24, -2.10%)等12只個高成長股;有33家上市公司前十大流通股股東中出現了險資身影，西山煤電(5.98, -0.11, -1.81%) 、天健集團、豐樂種業(7.78, 0.00, 0.00%) 、湘電股份(10.81, -0.19, -1.73%) 、圣農發展(14.26, 0.00, 0.00%) 、南玻A(7.38, -0.01, -0.14%)，險資持有的數量均超過1000萬股;基金方面，財通、東吳、國聯安、民生加銀等基金公司專戶產品，及華夏資本、鵬華資產和融通資本等基

It is the successful alliance of the United Nations Fund of micro-blog (micro-blog), which has successfully lurked the mining industry (13.05, 0.27, 2.11%) and Ruikang medicine (33.56, -0.35, -1.03%) and other big bull stocks. The social security fund has increased 22 stocks and 18 new ones in the two quarter. The largest addition is the refining of Liyuan (15.23, 0.13, 0.86%), the quarterly increase of the stocks in the first quarter, the largest number of new stocks in the new quarter, and the increase of insurance funds in the second quarter. The gold company's securities investment management plan came out of the top ten tradable shareholders of several listed companies.

of course, the blue chip stocks have been adjusted recently, but there is no sign of a drop in volume. Most of them use the method of inter disk adjustment to consume the float in the market, which shows that the market has not lost confidence in the blue chips.

At the same time, while the blue chip stocks were adjusted, the theme stocks took up the banner of raising the market and drove the market popularity and active trading. Stock and incremental funds switched back and forth between the two themes of blue chip and growth, giving birth to the blue chips and the stock market's rising trend.

It is this structural shift rhythm that determines the characteristics of the current structural bull market.

in short, in early 2006, "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp "> shares < /a > split" reform, the Shanghai stock market rose from 998.23 to 6124 points. At present, the market for new issue "registration system", state-owned enterprise reform, "Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong" will be opened in October and a series of favorable factors expectations, seems to show that since the end of July, the market in a lot of advantages superimposed on the market, which is a solid foundation and clear expectations for the long-term bull market in the future.