Fu Ziheng: The "Shifting Period" Of The Economy Has Led To Asymmetric Market Structure.

< p > > a > the recent "/a" A share market has broken the dull and upward breakthrough, and investor sentiment and market sentiment have been boosted. Judging from the performance of the stock market, the direct inducement of the ignited market is the upsurge of the "Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong" news. A group of blue chips whose shares are significantly lower than those of H-shares are sought after because of the price gap. The market value of such shares is relatively large, and the rise in share prices has led to a sharp rise in the Shanghai and Shenzhen composite index. The author believes that the underlying reason for the recent strength of the stock index lies in the quietly changing economic fundamentals and market expectations. < /p >
< p > first of all, in the middle of this year, the short-term indicators of macroeconomic data continue to turn positive. HSBC and official PMI index rose to the top of the 50 ups and downs since June, and in July, they reached a new high; the CPI index remained stable; the PPI decline continued to narrow, and these data were released after mid July. Although there is still a gap with market expectations, the stable appearance of the link has had a positive impact on the stability of the stock index. To boost market confidence, the macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of statistics in July 27th showed that the total profit of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size reached 2 trillion and 864 billion 980 million yuan in 1-6, an increase of 11.4% over the same period last year. The growth rate was 1.6 percentage points higher than that in 1-5 months, and the main activity was 26722 billion yuan, an increase of 10.8% over the same period last year, a growth rate of 1.7 percentage points higher than that in 1-5 months. In the month of June, the added value of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 17.9% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 9 percentage points higher than that in May. These data verify the short wave recovery trend of manufacturing industry, indicating that the profitability of the market is improving. < /p >
< p > > a > policy > /a > level is more active, cumulative effect outburst promotes stock index. In terms of monetary policy, although the central bank no longer uses the "flood irrigation" approach to inject capital into the market, its "directional easing" policy has loosened its liquidity from the structure and total volume, and the two direction in the two quarter has been lowered. After June, the central bank put more money into the market in the open market operation, thus improving the market capital environment. With the characteristics of urban public transport construction, shantytowns transformation, integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the construction of Yangtze River economic belt and the construction of New Silk Road and other regions, the "fixed point" plan is characterized by different policies. Monetary easing and "micro stimulus" played a stabilizing role in market expectations. < /p >
< p > according to the author's observation, there are also new changes in market capital flow across the market. The real estate market has undergone a profound change in trend after ten years of bull market. Although industry development is still in a "bottleneck" period, it will not turn to decline, but the continuous rise of housing prices has been difficult to continue. Housing prices are entering a turning stage as a whole. The rise of housing prices makes the real estate market's new entry investment and non industrial investment attractiveness greatly reduced, and it is crowding out the investment funds (industry and Finance) at the macro level. This part of the investment funds that are squeezed out objectively form a potential supply of funds to the A share market. Although the "potential supply" is not necessarily "real supply", but if the stock market confidence continues to increase and the demonstration effect of sustained profits occurs, these funds will be transformed from "potential" to "real", thus forming a basis for further warming of the market. < /p >
< p > then, where is the market opportunity? This needs to combine the short-term fundamentals of the market with the medium and long term situations. The above analysis is the situation of China's economic recovery at the mid - stage, which is concerned with the short cycle of economic fluctuations. But from a long-term perspective, China's economy is in the "shifting period" of economic growth. This shift is first manifested in the growth rate of the total economy, which is changing from "super high growth" in thirty years to "sub high growth". The author believes that, whether it is investment or consumption, China's economy still has a strong domestic demand foundation. As long as the policy is right, this domestic demand can still guarantee that the economy will still have relatively fast growth rate in the relatively long term. However, the increasing scale of the economy and the "super high growth" speed of the traditional way of relying on extensive input of elements are no longer sustainable, and the pace will slow down. < /p >
< p > overall, the recovery of the short wave band is brought about by the steady growth of the "shifting period" policy, which indicates that the foundation for supporting the full recovery of A shares is still unstable. At the same time, the performance of different markets in the domestic market is not consistent. For example, the gem has been heavily criticized last year as the name of the "new economy", and the main board market has been cold shouldered. The value of many stocks has been repeatedly depressed. Under the expected change of style, the author believes that even if the stock index rises, the market may still start in the way of structural band performance. Therefore, the current A share market will be positioned as the "asymmetric market of valuation repair". It is estimated that the undervalued blue chips will face more revaluation opportunities. Under this idea, it is more likely to win the chance of differentiation by selectively investing in differentiation and capturing structural trading opportunities. < /p >
From P point of view, China's total economic demand remains strong and structural contradictions create market structure opportunities. It is mainly manifested in the "growth and decline" of demand and consumption structure caused by the unbalanced development of regions, urban and rural areas, and the development of urbanization. The process of urbanization is still in the ascendant, which continues to release huge investment demand, the differential supply of investment generated by consumption upgrading of developed regions and high-income groups, and the investment demand caused by "missed lessons" in the western region's economic and social development, as well as the continuous growth of public demand for public goods in urban and rural areas. These differences in the performance of industry and field, put forward new needs for the basic supply of urban transportation, family housing, education, food hygiene, health care, environmental protection, communication and information, logistics and warehousing, information and public safety. The process of meeting these needs and solving the bottleneck problems of some industries is the matching process of market supply and demand, and continues to provide opportunities for the phased market. < /p >
< p > the opportunity of valuation repair in traditional industries lies in the trading opportunities created by supply contraction. The surplus industry has a "natural access" threshold from the scale economy. When the economy recovers, it can raise profits or block profits. At the same time, there are huge differences in the surplus industries. For example, the same is the means of production, some belong to renewable resources, some belong to non renewable resources. When the boom is restored, the degree of concern will not be the same, such as steel, cement and minerals, rare metal products and industry differences. < /p >
< p > when market sentiment is restored and stock index is stable, the emergence of various "themes" and "concepts" will bring more structural trading opportunities. At present, the price difference between A and H shares is facing a revaluation under the background of "Shanghai Hong Kong Tong" brewing, and economic and social reform, new layout of regional development, policy structure adjustment and unexpected events will continue to affect investor sentiment and psychological expectation in a variety of ways, resulting in fluctuations in stock prices. On the way back to the stock market, the activity of such trading opportunities will increase. < /p >